Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Romania
43.9% win probability
Predicted winner
25.9%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.17 - 1.46
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.6
Over 2.5: 49%
Total goals

Georgia

1419#87
UEFA
VS

Romania

1427#73
UEFA
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

30.3% 25.9% 43.9%
GEO
ROU
8
Rating Gap
1.17
Exp. Goals GEO
1.46
Exp. Goals ROU
56.2%
GEO No Defeat
2.6
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

H2H Dominance 5W-1W

Romania hold the historical edge: 5W-3D-1L across 9 meetings.

Recent Form 3W/4W

Both teams are evenly matched in recent form: Georgia 3/10, Romania 4/10. A closely contested match is expected.

Tournament Pedigree 1977

Romania have a major tournament title to their name; Georgia do not. Proven pedigree at the highest level.

Goal Patterns 2.6 xG

Combined avg of 2.87 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.6 (Over 2.5 probability: 49%).

Unbeaten Run 17 games

Romania's longest unbeaten run is 17 games vs Georgia's 11. Romania have shown greater resilience historically.

Penalty Shootouts 50% PSO

Shootout record: Georgia: 1W-1L; Romania: 2W-3L. Edge goes to Georgia if this match reaches penalties.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

9 meeting(s) · 1996-2026

1
GEO Win
3
Draws
5
ROU Win
7
Goals For
21
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
106
Games Played
109
38.7%
Win %
42.2%
1.47
Goals Per Game
1.50
1.25
Goals Against / Game
1.12
34.0%
Clean Sheet %
34.9%
24.5%
Failed to Score %
30.3%
5.7%
Goalless Draws %
11.0%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,419
Current Rating
1,427
#87
World Ranking
#73
55.5%
Win as Favourite
52.9%
19.8%
Win as Underdog
31.1%
5
Longest Win Streak
8
11
Longest Unbeaten Run
17
1511 (1990)
Peak Rating
1542 (1998)
1W-1L
Penalty Shootouts
2W-3L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

30.3% 25.9% 43.9%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

D 02 Jun 26 AWAY
1 - 1
Friendly
A 02 Jun 21 AWAY
1 - 2
Friendly
H 03 Jun 16 AWAY
5 - 1
Friendly
H 19 Nov 08 AWAY
2 - 1
Friendly
H 18 Feb 04 NEUTRAL
3 - 0
Friendly Tournament
D 06 Oct 01 AWAY
1 - 1
FIFA World Cup
A 28 Mar 01 AWAY
0 - 2
FIFA World Cup
D 04 Feb 00 NEUTRAL
1 - 1
Friendly Tournament
H 24 Apr 96 AWAY
5 - 0
Friendly

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 1
12.3%
0 - 1
10.5%
1 - 2
9.0%
1 - 0
8.4%
0 - 2
7.7%
2 - 1
7.2%