Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Israel
37.8% win probability
Predicted winner
25.6%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.36 - 1.39
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.8
Over 2.5: 52%
Total goals

Georgia

1419#87
UEFA
VS

Israel

1415#91
UEFA
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

36.6% 25.6% 37.8%
GEO
ISR
4
Rating Gap
1.36
Exp. Goals GEO
1.39
Exp. Goals ISR
62.2%
GEO No Defeat
2.8
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

H2H Dominance 3W-1W

Israel hold the historical edge: 3W-3D-1L across 7 meetings.

Recent Form 3W/5W

Israel won 5 of their last 10 games; Georgia won 3. Current form favours Israel.

Tournament Pedigree 1963

Israel have a major tournament title to their name; Georgia do not. Proven pedigree at the highest level.

Goal Patterns 2.8 xG

Combined avg of 2.75 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.8 (Over 2.5 probability: 52%).

Rating Gap 4 pts

Georgia hold a 4-point rating edge: roughly 0.6% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Peak Rating 1511

Georgia peaked at 1511 (in 1990); Israel peaked at 1502 (in 1974). Georgia hold the higher all-time ceiling.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

7 meeting(s) · 1994-2026

1
GEO Win
3
Draws
3
ISR Win
6
Goals For
9
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
106
Games Played
89
38.7%
Win %
37.1%
1.47
Goals Per Game
1.53
1.25
Goals Against / Game
1.71
34.0%
Clean Sheet %
19.1%
24.5%
Failed to Score %
24.7%
5.7%
Goalless Draws %
3.4%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,419
Current Rating
1,415
#87
World Ranking
#91
55.5%
Win as Favourite
60.0%
19.8%
Win as Underdog
21.9%
5
Longest Win Streak
7
11
Longest Unbeaten Run
9
1511 (1990)
Peak Rating
1502 (1974)
1W-1L
Penalty Shootouts
1W-1L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

36.6% 25.6% 37.8%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

D 26 Mar 26 AWAY
2 - 2
Friendly
H 29 Mar 11 AWAY
1 - 0
UEFA European Championship
D 07 Sep 10 AWAY
0 - 0
UEFA European Championship
A 27 May 04 AWAY
0 - 1
Friendly
H 24 Apr 01 AWAY
3 - 2
Friendly
D 29 Mar 00 AWAY
1 - 1
Friendly
H 23 Feb 94 AWAY
2 - 0
Friendly

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 1
12.1%
0 - 1
8.9%
1 - 0
8.7%
1 - 2
8.4%
2 - 1
8.2%
0 - 0
6.4%