Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

France
93.3% win probability
Predicted winner
5.9%
Honours shared
Draw chance
3.10 - 0.15
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
3.2
Over 2.5: 63%
Total goals

France

1657#2
UEFA
VS

Sweden

1448#59
UEFA
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

93.3% 5.9% 0.8%
FRA
SWE
209
Rating Gap
3.10
Exp. Goals FRA
0.15
Exp. Goals SWE
99.2%
FRA No Defeat
3.2
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Win Streak 7 games

France are currently on a 7-game winning run. Momentum is firmly with them entering this match.

Rating Gap 209 pts

France hold a 209-point rating edge: roughly 31.4% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Recent Form 9W/3W

France won 9 of their last 10 games; Sweden won 3. Current form favours France.

H2H Dominance 13W-6W

France hold the historical edge: 13W-5D-6L across 24 meetings.

Underdog Record 31% W

Sweden have won 31% of games entering as underdogs (105W from 337). A strong record against the odds.

Goal Patterns 3.2 xG

Combined avg of 3.80 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 3.2 (Over 2.5 probability: 63%).

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

24 meeting(s) · 1998-2026

13
FRA Win
5
Draws
6
SWE Win
37
Goals For
23
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
142
Games Played
132
68.3%
Win %
47.7%
2.15
Goals Per Game
1.64
0.85
Goals Against / Game
1.17
43.7%
Clean Sheet %
36.4%
14.8%
Failed to Score %
23.5%
7.7%
Goalless Draws %
4.5%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,657
Current Rating
1,448
#2
World Ranking
#59
60.0%
Win as Favourite
56.8%
33.7%
Win as Underdog
31.2%
14
Longest Win Streak
11
30
Longest Unbeaten Run
18
1657 (2026)
Peak Rating
1549 (2005)
4W-8L
Penalty Shootouts
3W-3L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

93.3% 5.9% 0.8%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 30 Jun 26 NEUTRAL
3 - 0
FIFA World Cup
H 17 Nov 20 AWAY
4 - 2
UEFA Nations League
A 05 Sep 20 AWAY
0 - 1
UEFA Nations League
H 09 Jun 17 AWAY
2 - 1
FIFA World Cup
H 11 Nov 16 AWAY
2 - 1
FIFA World Cup
H 18 Nov 14 AWAY
1 - 0
Friendly
H 19 Jun 12 NEUTRAL
2 - 0
UEFA European Championship
A 20 Aug 08 AWAY
2 - 3
Friendly
D 09 Feb 05 AWAY
1 - 1
Friendly
D 22 Apr 98 AWAY
0 - 0
Friendly

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
3 - 0
19.2%
2 - 0
18.6%
4 - 0
14.9%
1 - 0
12.0%
5 - 0
9.2%
0 - 0
3.9%