Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

France
92.8% win probability
Predicted winner
6.4%
Honours shared
Draw chance
3.01 - 0.15
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
3.2
Over 2.5: 61%
Total goals

France

1585#5
UEFA
VS

Northern Ireland

1394#110
UEFA
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

92.8% 6.4% 0.8%
FRA
NIR
191
Rating Gap
3.01
Exp. Goals FRA
0.15
Exp. Goals NIR
99.2%
FRA No Defeat
3.2
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Rating Gap 191 pts

France hold a 191-point rating edge: roughly 28.6% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Recent Form 8W/4W

France won 8 of their last 10 games; Northern Ireland won 4. Current form favours France.

H2H Dominance 5W-0W

France hold the historical edge: 5W-2D-0L across 7 meetings.

Tournament Pedigree 2020

Both teams are major tournament winners. France's most recent title: 2020. Northern Ireland's most recent title: 1984.

Underdog Record 21% W

Northern Ireland have won 21% of games entering as underdogs (82W from 395). A strong record against the odds.

Unbeaten Run 30 games

France's longest unbeaten run is 30 games vs Northern Ireland's 12. France have shown greater resilience historically.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

7 meeting(s) · 1958-2026

5
FRA Win
2
Draws
0
NIR Win
16
Goals For
2
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
136
Games Played
103
66.9%
Win %
35.9%
2.13
Goals Per Game
1.08
0.88
Goals Against / Game
1.15
42.6%
Clean Sheet %
38.8%
15.4%
Failed to Score %
37.9%
8.1%
Goalless Draws %
10.7%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,585
Current Rating
1,394
#5
World Ranking
#110
59.6%
Win as Favourite
56.5%
33.7%
Win as Underdog
20.8%
14
Longest Win Streak
5
30
Longest Unbeaten Run
12
1651 (2018)
Peak Rating
1460 (2017)
4W-8L
Penalty Shootouts
1W-0L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

92.8% 6.4% 0.8%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 08 Jun 26 AWAY
3 - 1
Friendly
A 18 Aug 99 AWAY
0 - 1
Friendly
D 27 Apr 88 AWAY
0 - 0
Friendly
D 26 Feb 86 AWAY
0 - 0
Friendly
A 04 Jul 82 NEUTRAL
1 - 4
FIFA World Cup
H 24 Mar 82 AWAY
4 - 0
Friendly
H 19 Jun 58 NEUTRAL
4 - 0
FIFA World Cup

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
3 - 0
19.3%
2 - 0
19.2%
4 - 0
14.5%
1 - 0
12.7%
5 - 0
8.8%
0 - 0
4.2%