Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

France
44.0% win probability
Predicted winner
26.9%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.38 - 1.07
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.5
Over 2.5: 44%
Total goals

France

1657#2
UEFA
VS

Morocco

1617#5
CAF
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

44.0% 26.9% 29.1%
FRA
MAR
41
Rating Gap
1.38
Exp. Goals FRA
1.07
Exp. Goals MAR
70.9%
FRA No Defeat
2.5
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Win Streak 7 games

France are currently on a 7-game winning run. Momentum is firmly with them entering this match.

Recent Form 9W/6W

France won 9 of their last 10 games; Morocco won 6. Current form favours France.

H2H Dominance 5W-0W

France hold the historical edge: 5W-2D-0L across 7 meetings.

Underdog Record 35% W

Morocco have won 35% of games entering as underdogs (65W from 188). A strong record against the odds.

Clean Sheet Rate 13pp

Morocco keep 48.5% clean sheets vs France's 35.9%, a 13pp gap that could be decisive in a tight contest.

Goal Patterns 2.4 xG

Combined avg of 3.38 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.4 (Over 2.5 probability: 44%).

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

7 meeting(s) · 1988-2026

5
FRA Win
2
Draws
0
MAR Win
16
Goals For
6
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
142
Games Played
180
68.3%
Win %
66.1%
2.15
Goals Per Game
1.83
0.85
Goals Against / Game
0.54
43.7%
Clean Sheet %
57.8%
14.8%
Failed to Score %
19.4%
7.7%
Goalless Draws %
11.1%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,657
Current Rating
1,617
#2
World Ranking
#5
60.0%
Win as Favourite
56.8%
33.7%
Win as Underdog
34.6%
14
Longest Win Streak
13
30
Longest Unbeaten Run
34
1657 (2026)
Peak Rating
1638 (2026)
4W-8L
Penalty Shootouts
8W-9L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

44.0% 26.9% 29.1%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 09 Jul 26 NEUTRAL
2 - 0
FIFA World Cup
H 14 Dec 22 NEUTRAL
2 - 0
FIFA World Cup
D 16 Nov 07 AWAY
2 - 2
Friendly
A 06 Jun 00 AWAY
1 - 5
Friendly Tournament
H 20 Jan 99 AWAY
1 - 0
Friendly
D 29 May 98 AWAY
2 - 2
Friendly Tournament
H 05 Feb 88 AWAY
2 - 1
Friendly Tournament

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 1
12.7%
1 - 0
11.9%
0 - 1
9.2%
2 - 1
8.8%
0 - 0
8.6%
2 - 0
8.2%