Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

France
83.8% win probability
Predicted winner
13.3%
Honours shared
Draw chance
2.26 - 0.24
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.5
Over 2.5: 46%
Total goals

France

1611#4
UEFA
VS

Iraq

1458#53
AFC
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

83.8% 13.3% 2.9%
FRA
IRQ
153
Rating Gap
2.26
Exp. Goals FRA
0.24
Exp. Goals IRQ
97.1%
FRA No Defeat
2.5
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Recent Form 8W/4W

France won 8 of their last 10 games; Iraq won 4. Current form favours France.

Rating Gap 153 pts

France hold a 153-point rating edge: roughly 22.9% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Limited H2H Data 1 games

Only 1 historical meeting(s). Ratings carry the most weight in this prediction.

Goal Patterns 2.5 xG

Combined avg of 3.34 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.5 (Over 2.5 probability: 46%).

Win Streak 3 games

France are currently on a 3-game winning run. Momentum is firmly with them entering this match.

Tournament Pedigree 2025

Both teams are major tournament winners. France's most recent title: 2020. Iraq's most recent title: 2025.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

1 meeting(s) · 2026-2026

1
FRA Win
0
Draws
0
IRQ Win
3
Goals For
0
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
138
Games Played
158
67.4%
Win %
46.8%
2.14
Goals Per Game
1.34
0.87
Goals Against / Game
0.91
42.8%
Clean Sheet %
41.8%
15.2%
Failed to Score %
30.4%
8.0%
Goalless Draws %
14.6%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,611
Current Rating
1,458
#4
World Ranking
#53
59.7%
Win as Favourite
54.9%
33.7%
Win as Underdog
23.4%
14
Longest Win Streak
8
30
Longest Unbeaten Run
19
1651 (2018)
Peak Rating
1544 (2024)
4W-8L
Penalty Shootouts
13W-10L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

83.8% 13.3% 2.9%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 22 Jun 26 NEUTRAL
3 - 0
FIFA World Cup

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
2 - 0
20.9%
1 - 0
18.5%
3 - 0
15.8%
4 - 0
8.9%
0 - 0
8.2%
2 - 1
5.1%