Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

England
40.4% win probability
Predicted winner
26.2%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.23 - 1.38
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.6
Over 2.5: 48%
Total goals

France

1635#4
UEFA
VS

England

1642#3
UEFA
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

33.3% 26.2% 40.4%
FRA
ENG
7
Rating Gap
1.23
Exp. Goals FRA
1.38
Exp. Goals ENG
59.5%
FRA No Defeat
2.6
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Goal Patterns 2.6 xG

Combined avg of 4.01 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.6 (Over 2.5 probability: 48%).

Recent Form 7W/8W

Both teams are evenly matched in recent form: France 7/10, England 8/10. A closely contested match is expected.

Win Streak 3 games

England are currently on a 3-game winning run. Momentum is firmly with them entering this match.

Tournament Pedigree 2020

Both teams are major tournament winners. France's most recent title: 2020. England's most recent title: 1983.

Unbeaten Run 30 games

France's longest unbeaten run is 30 games vs England's 22. France have shown greater resilience historically.

Penalty Shootouts 50% PSO

Shootout record: France: 6W-6L; England: 4W-8L. Edge goes to France if this match reaches penalties.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

35 meeting(s) · 1999-2026

11
FRA Win
6
Draws
18
ENG Win
49
Goals For
81
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
148
Games Played
144
67.6%
Win %
63.9%
2.14
Goals Per Game
2.14
0.89
Goals Against / Game
0.73
43.2%
Clean Sheet %
52.8%
14.9%
Failed to Score %
16.0%
7.4%
Goalless Draws %
8.3%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,635
Current Rating
1,642
#4
World Ranking
#3
59.5%
Win as Favourite
62.5%
32.6%
Win as Underdog
33.9%
14
Longest Win Streak
10
30
Longest Unbeaten Run
22
1657 (2026)
Peak Rating
1642 (2026)
6W-6L
Penalty Shootouts
4W-8L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

33.3% 26.2% 40.4%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

A 18 Jul 26NEUTRAL
4 - 6
FIFA World Cup
H 10 Dec 22NEUTRAL
2 - 1
FIFA World Cup
H 13 Jun 17
3 - 2
Friendly
H 17 Nov 15
2 - 0
Friendly
D 11 Jun 12NEUTRAL
1 - 1
UEFA European Championship
A 17 Nov 10
1 - 2
Friendly
H 26 Mar 08
1 - 0
Friendly
H 13 Jun 04NEUTRAL
2 - 1
UEFA European Championship
D 02 Sep 00
1 - 1
Friendly
A 10 Feb 99
0 - 2
Friendly

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 1
12.5%
0 - 1
10.2%
1 - 0
9.0%
1 - 2
8.6%
2 - 1
7.7%
0 - 0
7.4%