Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Estonia
38.0% win probability
Predicted winner
26.7%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.30 - 1.24
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.5
Over 2.5: 47%
Total goals

Estonia

1332#162
UEFA
VS

Faroe Islands

1349#149
UEFA
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

38.0% 26.7% 35.3%
EST
FRO
17
Rating Gap
1.30
Exp. Goals EST
1.24
Exp. Goals FRO
64.7%
EST No Defeat
2.5
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Recent Form 3W/7W

Faroe Islands won 7 of their last 10 games; Estonia won 3. Current form favours Faroe Islands.

H2H Dominance 6W-2W

Estonia hold the historical edge: 6W-1D-2L across 9 meetings.

Clean Sheet Rate 10pp

Estonia keep 22.9% clean sheets vs Faroe Islands's 13.1%, a 10pp gap that could be decisive in a tight contest.

Goal Patterns 2.5 xG

Combined avg of 1.76 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.5 (Over 2.5 probability: 47%).

Tournament Pedigree 2026

Both teams are major tournament winners. Estonia's most recent title: 2026. Faroe Islands's most recent title: 1991.

Penalty Shootouts 20% PSO

Shootout record: Estonia: 1W-4L; Faroe Islands: 0W-0L. Edge goes to Estonia if this match reaches penalties.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

9 meeting(s) · 1996-2026

6
EST Win
1
Draws
2
FRO Win
20
Goals For
11
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
120
Games Played
93
25.0%
Win %
24.7%
0.89
Goals Per Game
0.84
1.71
Goals Against / Game
1.66
28.3%
Clean Sheet %
19.4%
46.7%
Failed to Score %
47.3%
10.8%
Goalless Draws %
5.4%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,332
Current Rating
1,349
#162
World Ranking
#149
47.4%
Win as Favourite
55.4%
17.5%
Win as Underdog
6.9%
3
Longest Win Streak
3
8
Longest Unbeaten Run
4
1403 (2018)
Peak Rating
1379 (1990)
1W-4L
Penalty Shootouts
0W-0L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

38.0% 26.7% 35.3%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 06 Jun 26 AWAY
1 - 0
Baltic Cup
H 08 Jun 24 AWAY
4 - 1
Baltic Cup
H 07 Jun 11 AWAY
2 - 0
UEFA European Championship
H 11 Aug 10 AWAY
2 - 1
UEFA European Championship
H 04 Jun 08 AWAY
4 - 3
Friendly
A 04 Sep 99 AWAY
0 - 2
UEFA European Championship
H 04 Jun 98 AWAY
5 - 0
UEFA European Championship
A 06 Aug 97 AWAY
0 - 2
Friendly
D 24 Feb 96 NEUTRAL
2 - 2
Friendly

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 1
12.7%
1 - 0
10.2%
0 - 1
9.8%
2 - 1
8.2%
1 - 2
7.9%
0 - 0
7.9%