Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Spain
83.5% win probability
Predicted winner
13.3%
Honours shared
Draw chance
2.29 - 0.27
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.6
Over 2.5: 47%
Total goals

Spain

1623#3
UEFA
VS

Cabo Verde

1480#38
CAF
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

83.5% 13.3% 3.2%
ESP
CPV
144
Rating Gap
2.29
Exp. Goals ESP
0.27
Exp. Goals CPV
96.8%
ESP No Defeat
2.6
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Recent Form 6W/3W

Spain won 6 of their last 10 games; Cabo Verde won 3. Current form favours Spain.

Rating Gap 144 pts

Spain hold a 144-point rating edge: roughly 21.5% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Limited H2H Data 1 games

Only 1 historical meeting(s). Ratings carry the most weight in this prediction.

When Favourite 65% W

Spain win 65% of games when entering as the favoured side (397W from 610). Reliable frontrunners.

Goal Patterns 2.6 xG

Combined avg of 3.26 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.6 (Over 2.5 probability: 47%).

Tournament Pedigree 2023

Spain have a major tournament title to their name; Cabo Verde do not. Proven pedigree at the highest level.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

1 meeting(s) · 2026-2026

0
ESP Win
1
Draws
0
CPV Win
0
Goals For
0
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
131
Games Played
93
62.6%
Win %
40.9%
2.44
Goals Per Game
1.15
0.78
Goals Against / Game
1.01
46.6%
Clean Sheet %
38.7%
10.7%
Failed to Score %
36.6%
6.9%
Goalless Draws %
12.9%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,623
Current Rating
1,480
#3
World Ranking
#38
65.1%
Win as Favourite
54.7%
38.3%
Win as Underdog
26.1%
15
Longest Win Streak
3
35
Longest Unbeaten Run
11
1674 (2010)
Peak Rating
1489 (2024)
8W-7L
Penalty Shootouts
2W-2L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

83.5% 13.3% 3.2%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

D 15 Jun 26 NEUTRAL
0 - 0
FIFA World Cup

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
2 - 0
20.3%
1 - 0
17.7%
3 - 0
15.5%
4 - 0
8.9%
0 - 0
7.8%
2 - 1
5.5%