Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Iran
38.3% win probability
Predicted winner
27.5%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.17 - 1.25
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.4
Over 2.5: 44%
Total goals

Egypt

1533#22
CAF
VS

Iran

1535#21
AFC
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

34.2% 27.5% 38.3%
EGY
IRN
2
Rating Gap
1.17
Exp. Goals EGY
1.25
Exp. Goals IRN
61.7%
EGY No Defeat
2.4
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Limited H2H Data 2 games

Only 2 historical meeting(s). Ratings carry the most weight in this prediction.

Goal Patterns 2.4 xG

Combined avg of 3.56 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.4 (Over 2.5 probability: 44%).

Recent Form 4W/3W

Both teams are evenly matched in recent form: Egypt 4/10, Iran 3/10. A closely contested match is expected.

Tournament Pedigree 2023

Both teams are major tournament winners. Egypt's most recent title: 2008. Iran's most recent title: 2023.

Penalty Shootouts 55% PSO

Shootout record: Egypt: 13W-11L; Iran: 12W-10L. Records are closely matched, no clear edge.

Rating Gap 2 pts

Iran hold a 2-point rating edge: roughly 0.4% extra win probability on ratings alone.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

2 meeting(s) · 2000-2026

0
EGY Win
2
Draws
0
IRN Win
2
Goals For
2
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
138
Games Played
136
53.6%
Win %
66.9%
1.43
Goals Per Game
2.20
0.75
Goals Against / Game
0.65
49.3%
Clean Sheet %
55.1%
19.6%
Failed to Score %
15.4%
8.0%
Goalless Draws %
7.4%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,533
Current Rating
1,535
#22
World Ranking
#21
57.0%
Win as Favourite
58.6%
29.8%
Win as Underdog
42.9%
9
Longest Win Streak
10
19
Longest Unbeaten Run
18
1600 (2010)
Peak Rating
1601 (2004)
13W-11L
Penalty Shootouts
12W-10L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

34.2% 27.5% 38.3%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

D 26 Jun 26 NEUTRAL
1 - 1
FIFA World Cup
D 07 Jun 00 AWAY
1 - 1
Friendly Tournament

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 1
13.0%
0 - 1
11.1%
1 - 0
10.4%
0 - 0
8.9%
1 - 2
8.1%
2 - 1
7.6%