Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Ecuador
59.8% win probability
Predicted winner
23.1%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.77 - 0.82
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.6
Over 2.5: 48%
Total goals

Ecuador

1519#27
CONMEBOL
VS

Curaçao

1421#82
CONCACAF
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

59.8% 23.1% 17.1%
ECU
CUW
98
Rating Gap
1.77
Exp. Goals ECU
0.82
Exp. Goals CUW
82.9%
ECU No Defeat
2.6
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Limited H2H Data 1 games

Only 1 historical meeting(s). Ratings carry the most weight in this prediction.

Rating Gap 98 pts

Ecuador hold a 98-point rating edge: roughly 14.8% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Recent Form 4W/2W

Ecuador won 4 of their last 10 games; Curaçao won 2. Current form favours Ecuador.

Tournament Pedigree 2019

Both teams are major tournament winners. Ecuador's most recent title: 1965. Curaçao's most recent title: 2019.

Goal Patterns 2.6 xG

Combined avg of 2.96 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.6 (Over 2.5 probability: 48%).

Underdog Record 25% W

Curaçao have won 25% of games entering as underdogs (17W from 69). A strong record against the odds.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

1 meeting(s) · 2026-2026

0
ECU Win
1
Draws
0
CUW Win
0
Goals For
0
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
118
Games Played
109
37.3%
Win %
43.1%
1.25
Goals Per Game
1.97
1.02
Goals Against / Game
1.23
39.0%
Clean Sheet %
33.0%
31.4%
Failed to Score %
30.3%
16.9%
Goalless Draws %
10.1%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,519
Current Rating
1,421
#27
World Ranking
#82
51.6%
Win as Favourite
51.0%
23.3%
Win as Underdog
24.6%
6
Longest Win Streak
5
19
Longest Unbeaten Run
7
1524 (2026)
Peak Rating
1480 (2025)
2W-2L
Penalty Shootouts
2W-2L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

59.8% 23.1% 17.1%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

D 20 Jun 26 NEUTRAL
0 - 0
FIFA World Cup

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 0
13.3%
2 - 0
11.7%
1 - 1
10.9%
2 - 1
9.6%
0 - 0
7.5%
3 - 0
6.9%