Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Dominican Republic
55.9% win probability
Predicted winner
23.2%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.79 - 1.00
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.8
Over 2.5: 53%
Total goals

Dominican Republic

1428#76
CONCACAF
VS

El Salvador

1376#129
CONCACAF
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

55.9% 23.2% 20.9%
DOM
SLV
51
Rating Gap
1.79
Exp. Goals DOM
1.00
Exp. Goals SLV
79.1%
DOM No Defeat
2.8
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

H2H Dominance 4W-1W

El Salvador hold the historical edge: 4W-1D-1L across 6 meetings.

Recent Form 1W/2W

Both teams are evenly matched in recent form: Dominican Republic 1/10, El Salvador 2/10. A closely contested match is expected.

Tournament Pedigree 1954

El Salvador have a major tournament title to their name; Dominican Republic do not. Proven pedigree at the highest level.

Goal Patterns 2.8 xG

Combined avg of 2.90 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.8 (Over 2.5 probability: 53%).

Rating Gap 51 pts

Dominican Republic hold a 51-point rating edge: roughly 7.7% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Underdog Record 22% W

El Salvador have won 22% of games entering as underdogs (96W from 429). A strong record against the odds.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

6 meeting(s) · 2011-2026

1
DOM Win
1
Draws
4
SLV Win
6
Goals For
11
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
92
Games Played
141
44.6%
Win %
34.0%
1.67
Goals Per Game
1.06
1.13
Goals Against / Game
1.21
44.6%
Clean Sheet %
34.0%
27.2%
Failed to Score %
39.7%
7.6%
Goalless Draws %
7.8%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,428
Current Rating
1,376
#76
World Ranking
#129
57.6%
Win as Favourite
53.3%
17.2%
Win as Underdog
22.4%
7
Longest Win Streak
7
10
Longest Unbeaten Run
10
1469 (2025)
Peak Rating
1519 (2021)
0W-0L
Penalty Shootouts
3W-2L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

55.9% 23.2% 20.9%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

D 26 Mar 26 AWAY
2 - 2
CONCACAF Series
H 19 Nov 19 AWAY
2 - 0
CONCACAF Gold Cup
H 10 Sep 19 AWAY
1 - 0
CONCACAF Gold Cup
H 30 Aug 14 AWAY
2 - 0
Friendly
A 07 Oct 11 AWAY
1 - 2
FIFA World Cup
H 02 Sep 11 AWAY
3 - 2
FIFA World Cup

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 0
11.0%
1 - 1
11.0%
2 - 0
9.9%
2 - 1
9.8%
0 - 0
6.2%
0 - 1
6.2%