Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Cape Verde
64.4% win probability
Predicted winner
22.3%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.79 - 0.66
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.5
Over 2.5: 44%
Total goals
VS

Bermuda

1318#172
CONCACAF
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

64.4% 22.3% 13.3%
CVE
BER
103
Rating Gap
1.79
Exp. Goals CVE
0.66
Exp. Goals BER
86.7%
CVE No Defeat
2.5
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Recent Form 6W/2W

Cape Verde won 6 of their last 10 games; Bermuda won 2. Current form favours Cape Verde.

Limited H2H Data 1 games

Only 1 historical meeting(s). Ratings carry the most weight in this prediction.

Rating Gap 103 pts

Cape Verde hold a 103-point rating edge: roughly 15.5% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Clean Sheet Rate 9pp

Cape Verde keep 35.4% clean sheets vs Bermuda's 26.3%, a 9pp gap that could be decisive in a tight contest.

Tournament Pedigree 2013

Both teams are major tournament winners. Cape Verde's most recent title: 2000. Bermuda's most recent title: 2013.

Underdog Record 20% W

Bermuda have won 20% of games entering as underdogs (25W from 124). A strong record against the odds.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

1 meeting(s) · 2026-2026

1
CVE Win
0
Draws
0
BER Win
3
Goals For
0
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
2
Games Played
83
100.0%
Win %
30.1%
3.00
Goals Per Game
1.61
0.00
Goals Against / Game
2.14
100.0%
Clean Sheet %
22.9%
0.0%
Failed to Score %
27.7%
0.0%
Goalless Draws %
6.0%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,422
Current Rating
1,318
-
World Ranking
#172
47.1%
Win as Favourite
51.0%
26.1%
Win as Underdog
20.2%
3
Longest Win Streak
4
7
Longest Unbeaten Run
10
1432 (2013)
Peak Rating
1456 (2015)
3W-2L
Penalty Shootouts
0W-1L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

64.4% 22.3% 13.3%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 06 Jun 26 NEUTRAL
3 - 0
Friendly

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 0
15.4%
2 - 0
13.8%
1 - 1
10.2%
2 - 1
9.1%
0 - 0
8.6%
3 - 0
8.2%