Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Togo
65.5% win probability
Predicted winner
21.1%
Honours shared
Draw chance
0.72 - 1.91
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.6
Over 2.5: 49%
Total goals
VS

Togo

1402#105
CAF
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

13.4% 21.1% 65.5%
CTA
TOG
88
Rating Gap
0.72
Exp. Goals CTA
1.91
Exp. Goals TOG
34.5%
CTA No Defeat
2.6
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Limited H2H Data 2 games

Only 2 historical meeting(s). Ratings carry the most weight in this prediction.

Clean Sheet Rate 12pp

Togo keep 29.6% clean sheets vs Central African Republic's 17.7%, a 12pp gap that could be decisive in a tight contest.

Rating Gap 88 pts

Togo hold a 88-point rating edge: roughly 13.3% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Recent Form 1W/3W

Togo won 3 of their last 10 games; Central African Republic won 1. Current form favours Togo.

Goal Patterns 2.6 xG

Combined avg of 2.14 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.6 (Over 2.5 probability: 49%).

Underdog Record 21% W

Central African Republic have won 21% of games entering as underdogs (27W from 131). A strong record against the odds.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

2 meeting(s) · 1987-2026

0
CTA Win
1
Draws
1
TOG Win
1
Goals For
2
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
71
Games Played
100
25.4%
Win %
27.0%
1.07
Goals Per Game
1.12
1.75
Goals Against / Game
1.17
19.7%
Clean Sheet %
30.0%
40.8%
Failed to Score %
33.0%
7.0%
Goalless Draws %
10.0%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,313
Current Rating
1,402
#177
World Ranking
#105
31.2%
Win as Favourite
44.4%
20.6%
Win as Underdog
25.8%
3
Longest Win Streak
5
4
Longest Unbeaten Run
12
1402 (1999)
Peak Rating
1498 (2005)
1W-2L
Penalty Shootouts
3W-3L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

13.4% 21.1% 65.5%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

D 05 Jun 26 NEUTRAL
1 - 1
Friendly
H 18 Nov 87 AWAY
1 - 0
Friendly

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
0 - 1
13.7%
0 - 2
13.1%
1 - 1
9.9%
1 - 2
9.5%
0 - 3
8.3%
0 - 0
7.2%