Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Croatia
64.5% win probability
Predicted winner
22.0%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.82 - 0.69
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.5
Over 2.5: 46%
Total goals

Croatia

1528#24
UEFA
VS

Ghana

1432#69
CAF
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

64.5% 22.0% 13.5%
CRO
GHA
96
Rating Gap
1.82
Exp. Goals CRO
0.69
Exp. Goals GHA
86.5%
CRO No Defeat
2.5
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Recent Form 7W/2W

Croatia won 7 of their last 10 games; Ghana won 2. Current form favours Croatia.

Underdog Record 33% W

Ghana have won 33% of games entering as underdogs (72W from 220). A strong record against the odds.

Limited H2H Data 1 games

Only 1 historical meeting(s). Ratings carry the most weight in this prediction.

Rating Gap 96 pts

Croatia hold a 96-point rating edge: roughly 14.4% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Goal Patterns 2.5 xG

Combined avg of 3.29 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.5 (Over 2.5 probability: 46%).

Tournament Pedigree 2024

Both teams are major tournament winners. Croatia's most recent title: 2024. Ghana's most recent title: 1987.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

1 meeting(s) · 2026-2026

1
CRO Win
0
Draws
0
GHA Win
2
Goals For
1
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
134
Games Played
125
52.2%
Win %
36.0%
1.72
Goals Per Game
1.21
1.07
Goals Against / Game
1.04
35.1%
Clean Sheet %
36.0%
19.4%
Failed to Score %
34.4%
6.7%
Goalless Draws %
12.0%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,528
Current Rating
1,432
#24
World Ranking
#69
59.0%
Win as Favourite
51.6%
39.1%
Win as Underdog
32.7%
7
Longest Win Streak
10
16
Longest Unbeaten Run
22
1576 (1998)
Peak Rating
1542 (2008)
7W-5L
Penalty Shootouts
7W-12L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

64.5% 22.0% 13.5%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 27 Jun 26 NEUTRAL
2 - 1
FIFA World Cup

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 0
14.9%
2 - 0
13.5%
1 - 1
10.2%
2 - 1
9.3%
3 - 0
8.2%
0 - 0
8.2%