Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Colombia
46.8% win probability
Predicted winner
27.5%
Honours shared
Draw chance
0.93 - 1.36
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.3
Over 2.5: 40%
Total goals

Croatia

1519#26
UEFA
VS

Colombia

1582#10
CONMEBOL
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

25.7% 27.5% 46.8%
CRO
COL
62
Rating Gap
0.93
Exp. Goals CRO
1.36
Exp. Goals COL
53.2%
CRO No Defeat
2.3
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Underdog Record 39% W

Croatia have won 39% of games entering as underdogs (50W from 128). A strong record against the odds.

Limited H2H Data 1 games

Only 1 historical meeting(s). Ratings carry the most weight in this prediction.

Win Streak 4 games

Colombia are currently on a 4-game winning run. Momentum is firmly with them entering this match.

Recent Form 6W/7W

Both teams are evenly matched in recent form: Croatia 6/10, Colombia 7/10. A closely contested match is expected.

Goalless Draw Risk 12% 0-0

12.1% of Colombia's games end goalless, well above the global average, suggesting a low-scoring match.

Goal Patterns 2.3 xG

Combined avg of 3.04 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.3 (Over 2.5 probability: 40%).

AI Match-Up Evaluation

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Head-to-Head Record

1 meeting(s) · 2026-2026

1
CRO Win
0
Draws
0
COL Win
2
Goals For
1
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
133
Games Played
126
51.9%
Win %
51.6%
1.72
Goals Per Game
1.55
1.08
Goals Against / Game
0.87
35.3%
Clean Sheet %
48.4%
19.5%
Failed to Score %
24.6%
6.8%
Goalless Draws %
15.9%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,519
Current Rating
1,582
#26
World Ranking
#10
58.8%
Win as Favourite
51.3%
39.1%
Win as Underdog
29.4%
7
Longest Win Streak
10
16
Longest Unbeaten Run
28
1576 (1998)
Peak Rating
1604 (2024)
7W-5L
Penalty Shootouts
7W-5L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

25.7% 27.5% 46.8%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

A 26 Mar 26 NEUTRAL
1 - 2
Friendly

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
0 - 1
13.7%
1 - 1
12.8%
0 - 0
10.1%
1 - 0
9.4%
0 - 2
9.3%
1 - 2
8.7%