Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Equatorial Guinea
37.6% win probability
Predicted winner
28.0%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.14 - 1.21
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.3
Over 2.5: 42%
Total goals

Comoros

1373#132
CAF
VS

Equatorial Guinea

1381#121
CAF
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

34.4% 28.0% 37.6%
COM
EQG
8
Rating Gap
1.14
Exp. Goals COM
1.21
Exp. Goals EQG
62.4%
COM No Defeat
2.3
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Limited H2H Data 1 games

Only 1 historical meeting(s). Ratings carry the most weight in this prediction.

Goal Patterns 2.3 xG

Combined avg of 1.78 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.3 (Over 2.5 probability: 42%).

Recent Form 1W/2W

Both teams are evenly matched in recent form: Comoros 1/10, Equatorial Guinea 2/10. A closely contested match is expected.

Unbeaten Run 13 games

Equatorial Guinea's longest unbeaten run is 13 games vs Comoros's 7. Equatorial Guinea have shown greater resilience historically.

Penalty Shootouts 50% PSO

Shootout record: Comoros: 1W-1L; Equatorial Guinea: 1W-4L. Edge goes to Comoros if this match reaches penalties.

Rating Gap 8 pts

Equatorial Guinea hold a 8-point rating edge: roughly 1.3% extra win probability on ratings alone.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

1 meeting(s) · 2026-2026

1
COM Win
0
Draws
0
EQG Win
1
Goals For
0
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
118
Games Played
90
33.1%
Win %
34.4%
1.05
Goals Per Game
1.02
1.25
Goals Against / Game
1.12
31.4%
Clean Sheet %
32.2%
34.7%
Failed to Score %
34.4%
8.5%
Goalless Draws %
6.7%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,373
Current Rating
1,381
#132
World Ranking
#121
39.2%
Win as Favourite
45.8%
18.9%
Win as Underdog
20.1%
4
Longest Win Streak
3
7
Longest Unbeaten Run
13
1420 (2024)
Peak Rating
1465 (2024)
1W-1L
Penalty Shootouts
1W-4L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

34.4% 28.0% 37.6%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 09 Jun 26 NEUTRAL
1 - 0
Friendly

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 1
13.2%
0 - 1
11.5%
1 - 0
10.9%
0 - 0
9.5%
1 - 2
7.9%
2 - 1
7.5%