Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Colombia
81.1% win probability
Predicted winner
15.8%
Honours shared
Draw chance
2.02 - 0.21
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.2
Over 2.5: 39%
Total goals

Colombia

1584#10
CONMEBOL
VS

Ghana

1428#71
CAF
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

81.1% 15.8% 3.1%
COL
GHA
155
Rating Gap
2.02
Exp. Goals COL
0.21
Exp. Goals GHA
96.9%
COL No Defeat
2.2
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Recent Form 6W/1W

Colombia won 6 of their last 10 games; Ghana won 1. Current form favours Colombia.

Rating Gap 155 pts

Colombia hold a 155-point rating edge: roughly 23.3% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Underdog Record 33% W

Ghana have won 33% of games entering as underdogs (72W from 220). A strong record against the odds.

Limited H2H Data 1 games

Only 1 historical meeting(s). Ratings carry the most weight in this prediction.

Goalless Draw Risk 12% 0-0

12.4% of Colombia's games end goalless, well above the global average, suggesting a low-scoring match.

Tournament Pedigree 2001

Both teams are major tournament winners. Colombia's most recent title: 2001. Ghana's most recent title: 1987.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

1 meeting(s) · 2026-2026

1
COL Win
0
Draws
0
GHA Win
1
Goals For
0
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
129
Games Played
126
51.2%
Win %
35.7%
1.52
Goals Per Game
1.20
0.84
Goals Against / Game
1.04
49.6%
Clean Sheet %
35.7%
25.6%
Failed to Score %
34.9%
17.1%
Goalless Draws %
11.9%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,584
Current Rating
1,428
#10
World Ranking
#71
50.9%
Win as Favourite
51.5%
29.8%
Win as Underdog
32.7%
10
Longest Win Streak
10
28
Longest Unbeaten Run
22
1603 (2024)
Peak Rating
1542 (2008)
7W-6L
Penalty Shootouts
7W-12L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

81.1% 15.8% 3.1%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 03 Jul 26 NEUTRAL
1 - 0
FIFA World Cup

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
2 - 0
21.9%
1 - 0
21.7%
3 - 0
14.8%
0 - 0
10.8%
4 - 0
7.5%
2 - 1
4.6%