Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

France
45.1% win probability
Predicted winner
27.1%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.02 - 1.38
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.4
Over 2.5: 43%
Total goals

Colombia

1553#14
CONMEBOL
VS

France

1585#5
UEFA
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

27.8% 27.1% 45.1%
COL
FRA
32
Rating Gap
1.02
Exp. Goals COL
1.38
Exp. Goals FRA
54.9%
COL No Defeat
2.4
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

H2H Dominance 4W-1W

France hold the historical edge: 4W-0D-1L across 5 meetings.

Recent Form 7W/8W

Both teams are evenly matched in recent form: Colombia 7/10, France 8/10. A closely contested match is expected.

Goalless Draw Risk 12% 0-0

12.2% of Colombia's games end goalless, well above the global average, suggesting a low-scoring match.

Goal Patterns 2.4 xG

Combined avg of 3.11 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.4 (Over 2.5 probability: 43%).

Tournament Pedigree 2020

Both teams are major tournament winners. Colombia's most recent title: 2001. France's most recent title: 2020.

Underdog Record 29% W

Colombia have won 29% of games entering as underdogs (89W from 303). A strong record against the odds.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

5 meeting(s) · 1972-2026

1
COL Win
0
Draws
4
FRA Win
6
Goals For
10
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
124
Games Played
136
50.8%
Win %
66.9%
1.54
Goals Per Game
2.13
0.87
Goals Against / Game
0.88
48.4%
Clean Sheet %
42.6%
25.0%
Failed to Score %
15.4%
16.1%
Goalless Draws %
8.1%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,553
Current Rating
1,585
#14
World Ranking
#5
51.0%
Win as Favourite
59.6%
29.4%
Win as Underdog
33.7%
10
Longest Win Streak
14
28
Longest Unbeaten Run
30
1604 (2024)
Peak Rating
1651 (2018)
7W-5L
Penalty Shootouts
4W-8L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

27.8% 27.1% 45.1%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

A 29 Mar 26 NEUTRAL
1 - 3
Friendly
A 23 Mar 18 AWAY
2 - 3
Friendly
H 03 Jun 08 AWAY
1 - 0
Friendly
H 18 Jun 03 AWAY
1 - 0
FIFA Confederations Cup
H 18 Jun 72 NEUTRAL
3 - 2
Friendly Tournament

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 1
12.8%
0 - 1
12.5%
1 - 0
9.2%
0 - 0
9.1%
1 - 2
8.8%
0 - 2
8.6%