Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Colombia
56.4% win probability
Predicted winner
25.4%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.56 - 0.76
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.3
Over 2.5: 41%
Total goals

Colombia

1582#10
CONMEBOL
VS
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

56.4% 25.4% 18.2%
COL
COD
74
Rating Gap
1.56
Exp. Goals COL
0.76
Exp. Goals COD
81.8%
COL No Defeat
2.3
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Recent Form 7W/4W

Colombia won 7 of their last 10 games; Congo Democratic Republic won 4. Current form favours Colombia.

Limited H2H Data 1 games

Only 1 historical meeting(s). Ratings carry the most weight in this prediction.

Win Streak 4 games

Colombia are currently on a 4-game winning run. Momentum is firmly with them entering this match.

Clean Sheet Rate 9pp

Colombia keep 40.7% clean sheets vs Congo Democratic Republic's 32.1%, a 9pp gap that could be decisive in a tight contest.

Goalless Draw Risk 12% 0-0

12.1% of Colombia's games end goalless, well above the global average, suggesting a low-scoring match.

Rating Gap 74 pts

Colombia hold a 74-point rating edge: roughly 11.1% extra win probability on ratings alone.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

1 meeting(s) · 2026-2026

1
COL Win
0
Draws
0
COD Win
1
Goals For
0
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
126
Games Played
139
51.6%
Win %
42.4%
1.55
Goals Per Game
1.32
0.87
Goals Against / Game
0.89
48.4%
Clean Sheet %
37.4%
24.6%
Failed to Score %
25.9%
15.9%
Goalless Draws %
8.6%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,582
Current Rating
1,508
#10
World Ranking
#33
51.3%
Win as Favourite
51.0%
29.4%
Win as Underdog
21.6%
10
Longest Win Streak
5
28
Longest Unbeaten Run
12
1604 (2024)
Peak Rating
1529 (2026)
7W-5L
Penalty Shootouts
5W-5L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

56.4% 25.4% 18.2%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 23 Jun 26 NEUTRAL
1 - 0
FIFA World Cup

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 0
15.4%
2 - 0
12.0%
1 - 1
11.7%
0 - 0
9.9%
2 - 1
9.1%
0 - 1
7.5%