Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Congo Democratic Republic
43.5% win probability
Predicted winner
27.5%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.33 - 1.03
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.4
Over 2.5: 42%
Total goals
VS

Uzbekistan

1464#45
AFC
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

43.5% 27.5% 29.0%
COD
UZB
62
Rating Gap
1.33
Exp. Goals COD
1.03
Exp. Goals UZB
71.0%
COD No Defeat
2.4
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Limited H2H Data 1 games

Only 1 historical meeting(s). Ratings carry the most weight in this prediction.

Clean Sheet Rate 9pp

Uzbekistan keep 41.3% clean sheets vs Congo Democratic Republic's 32.0%, a 9pp gap that could be decisive in a tight contest.

Recent Form 4W/2W

Congo Democratic Republic won 4 of their last 10 games; Uzbekistan won 2. Current form favours Congo Democratic Republic.

Goal Patterns 2.4 xG

Combined avg of 3.03 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.4 (Over 2.5 probability: 42%).

Rating Gap 62 pts

Congo Democratic Republic hold a 62-point rating edge: roughly 9.3% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Tournament Pedigree 2025

Both teams are major tournament winners. Congo Democratic Republic's most recent title: 2015. Uzbekistan's most recent title: 2025.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

1 meeting(s) · 2026-2026

1
COD Win
0
Draws
0
UZB Win
3
Goals For
1
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
140
Games Played
135
42.9%
Win %
53.3%
1.33
Goals Per Game
1.51
0.89
Goals Against / Game
0.90
37.1%
Clean Sheet %
48.1%
25.7%
Failed to Score %
28.1%
8.6%
Goalless Draws %
9.6%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,526
Current Rating
1,464
#25
World Ranking
#45
51.3%
Win as Favourite
60.4%
21.6%
Win as Underdog
20.0%
5
Longest Win Streak
8
12
Longest Unbeaten Run
19
1529 (2026)
Peak Rating
1563 (1994)
5W-5L
Penalty Shootouts
1W-5L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

43.5% 27.5% 29.0%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 27 Jun 26 NEUTRAL
3 - 1
FIFA World Cup

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 1
12.9%
1 - 0
12.5%
0 - 1
9.7%
0 - 0
9.4%
2 - 1
8.6%
2 - 0
8.3%