Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Morocco
74.6% win probability
Predicted winner
18.7%
Honours shared
Draw chance
0.40 - 1.93
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.3
Over 2.5: 41%
Total goals

Cameroon

1490#38
CAF
VS

Morocco

1619#1
CAF
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

6.7% 18.7% 74.6%
CMR
MAR
129
Rating Gap
0.40
Exp. Goals CMR
1.93
Exp. Goals MAR
25.4%
CMR No Defeat
2.3
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Rating Gap 129 pts

Morocco hold a 129-point rating edge: roughly 19.3% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Balanced Rivalry Tight

The 15-meeting rivalry is exceptionally balanced: 6W for Cameroon, 4W for Morocco, 5 draws. Never count either side out.

Clean Sheet Rate 8pp

Morocco keep 48.5% clean sheets vs Cameroon's 40.5%, a 8pp gap that could be decisive in a tight contest.

Goalless Draw Risk 13% 0-0

13.2% of Morocco's games end goalless, well above the global average, suggesting a low-scoring match.

Tournament Pedigree 2025

Both teams are major tournament winners. Cameroon's most recent title: 2015. Morocco's most recent title: 2025.

Goal Patterns 2.3 xG

Combined avg of 2.96 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.3 (Over 2.5 probability: 41%).

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

15 meeting(s) · 1994-2026

6
CMR Win
5
Draws
4
MAR Win
13
Goals For
15
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
144
Games Played
175
40.3%
Win %
66.3%
1.16
Goals Per Game
1.83
0.87
Goals Against / Game
0.53
41.7%
Clean Sheet %
58.3%
31.9%
Failed to Score %
19.4%
15.3%
Goalless Draws %
11.4%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,490
Current Rating
1,619
#38
World Ranking
#1
49.7%
Win as Favourite
56.8%
28.7%
Win as Underdog
34.7%
7
Longest Win Streak
13
16
Longest Unbeaten Run
34
1575 (2002)
Peak Rating
1632 (2026)
9W-13L
Penalty Shootouts
7W-9L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

6.7% 18.7% 74.6%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

A 09 Jan 26 AWAY
0 - 2
Africa Cup of Nations
H 03 Feb 21 AWAY
4 - 0
African Nations Championship
H 16 Nov 18 AWAY
2 - 0
Africa Cup of Nations
H 06 Jan 18 AWAY
3 - 1
Friendly
H 10 Jun 17 AWAY
1 - 0
Africa Cup of Nations
D 13 Nov 11 AWAY
1 - 1
Friendly Tournament
A 14 Nov 09 AWAY
0 - 2
FIFA World Cup
D 07 Jun 09 AWAY
0 - 0
FIFA World Cup
D 15 Nov 05 NEUTRAL
0 - 0
Friendly
D 07 Nov 94 AWAY
1 - 1
Friendly

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
0 - 1
18.8%
0 - 2
18.2%
0 - 3
11.7%
0 - 0
9.7%
1 - 1
7.5%
1 - 2
7.2%