Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Côte d'Ivoire
50.7% win probability
Predicted winner
25.9%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.52 - 0.94
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.5
Over 2.5: 45%
Total goals

Côte d'Ivoire

1545#17
CAF
VS

Ecuador

1519#27
CONMEBOL
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

50.7% 25.9% 23.4%
CIV
ECU
26
Rating Gap
1.52
Exp. Goals CIV
0.94
Exp. Goals ECU
76.6%
CIV No Defeat
2.5
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Recent Form 7W/4W

Côte d'Ivoire won 7 of their last 10 games; Ecuador won 4. Current form favours Côte d'Ivoire.

Limited H2H Data 1 games

Only 1 historical meeting(s). Ratings carry the most weight in this prediction.

Clean Sheet Rate 15pp

Côte d'Ivoire keep 43.7% clean sheets vs Ecuador's 29.0%, a 15pp gap that could be decisive in a tight contest.

Tournament Pedigree 1965

Ecuador have a major tournament title to their name; Côte d'Ivoire do not. Proven pedigree at the highest level.

Unbeaten Run 26 games

Côte d'Ivoire's longest unbeaten run is 26 games vs Ecuador's 19. Côte d'Ivoire have shown greater resilience historically.

Goal Patterns 2.5 xG

Combined avg of 2.78 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.5 (Over 2.5 probability: 45%).

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

1 meeting(s) · 2026-2026

1
CIV Win
0
Draws
0
ECU Win
1
Goals For
0
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
145
Games Played
118
51.7%
Win %
37.3%
1.49
Goals Per Game
1.25
0.82
Goals Against / Game
1.02
42.8%
Clean Sheet %
39.0%
29.7%
Failed to Score %
31.4%
13.1%
Goalless Draws %
16.9%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,545
Current Rating
1,519
#17
World Ranking
#27
54.3%
Win as Favourite
51.6%
38.8%
Win as Underdog
23.3%
7
Longest Win Streak
6
26
Longest Unbeaten Run
19
1583 (2013)
Peak Rating
1524 (2026)
11W-8L
Penalty Shootouts
2W-2L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

50.7% 25.9% 23.4%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 14 Jun 26 NEUTRAL
1 - 0
FIFA World Cup

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 0
13.0%
1 - 1
12.2%
2 - 0
9.8%
2 - 1
9.3%
0 - 0
8.6%
0 - 1
8.1%