Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Côte d'Ivoire
60.5% win probability
Predicted winner
23.8%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.68 - 0.72
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.4
Over 2.5: 43%
Total goals

Côte d'Ivoire

1531#21
CAF
VS

Burkina Faso

1460#58
CAF
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

60.5% 23.8% 15.7%
CIV
BFA
71
Rating Gap
1.68
Exp. Goals CIV
0.72
Exp. Goals BFA
84.3%
CIV No Defeat
2.4
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

H2H Dominance 8W-3W

Côte d'Ivoire hold the historical edge: 8W-8D-3L across 19 meetings.

Clean Sheet Rate 11pp

Côte d'Ivoire keep 43.7% clean sheets vs Burkina Faso's 32.5%, a 11pp gap that could be decisive in a tight contest.

Recent Form 7W/5W

Côte d'Ivoire won 7 of their last 10 games; Burkina Faso won 5. Current form favours Côte d'Ivoire.

Rating Gap 71 pts

Côte d'Ivoire hold a 71-point rating edge: roughly 10.6% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Underdog Record 25% W

Burkina Faso have won 25% of games entering as underdogs (62W from 244). A strong record against the odds.

Unbeaten Run 26 games

Côte d'Ivoire's longest unbeaten run is 26 games vs Burkina Faso's 12. Côte d'Ivoire have shown greater resilience historically.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

19 meeting(s) · 2009-2026

8
CIV Win
8
Draws
3
BFA Win
27
Goals For
15
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
141
Games Played
135
51.1%
Win %
42.2%
1.49
Goals Per Game
1.31
0.82
Goals Against / Game
0.99
42.6%
Clean Sheet %
38.5%
30.5%
Failed to Score %
29.6%
13.5%
Goalless Draws %
11.9%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,531
Current Rating
1,460
#21
World Ranking
#58
53.9%
Win as Favourite
48.5%
39.0%
Win as Underdog
25.4%
7
Longest Win Streak
6
26
Longest Unbeaten Run
12
1583 (2013)
Peak Rating
1492 (2024)
11W-8L
Penalty Shootouts
10W-5L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

60.5% 23.8% 15.7%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 06 Jan 26 NEUTRAL
3 - 0
Africa Cup of Nations
H 28 Dec 24 NEUTRAL
2 - 0
African Nations Championship
H 22 Dec 24 AWAY
2 - 0
African Nations Championship
A 19 Nov 22 NEUTRAL
1 - 2
Friendly
D 04 Sep 22 NEUTRAL
0 - 0
African Nations Championship
D 27 Aug 22 AWAY
0 - 0
African Nations Championship
H 05 Jun 21 AWAY
2 - 1
Friendly
H 26 Jan 12 NEUTRAL
2 - 0
Africa Cup of Nations
D 11 Jan 10 NEUTRAL
0 - 0
Africa Cup of Nations
H 05 Sep 09 AWAY
5 - 0
FIFA World Cup

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 0
15.2%
2 - 0
12.8%
1 - 1
11.0%
2 - 1
9.2%
0 - 0
9.1%
3 - 0
7.2%