Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Burundi
70.1% win probability
Predicted winner
19.5%
Honours shared
Draw chance
0.61 - 2.00
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.6
Over 2.5: 48%
Total goals

Chad

1259#209
CAF
VS

Burundi

1358#145
CAF
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

10.4% 19.5% 70.1%
CHA
BDI
100
Rating Gap
0.61
Exp. Goals CHA
2.00
Exp. Goals BDI
29.9%
CHA No Defeat
2.6
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Recent Form 0W/4W

Burundi won 4 of their last 10 games; Chad won 0. Current form favours Burundi.

Limited H2H Data 2 games

Only 2 historical meeting(s). Ratings carry the most weight in this prediction.

Clean Sheet Rate 11pp

Burundi keep 28.7% clean sheets vs Chad's 18.0%, a 11pp gap that could be decisive in a tight contest.

Rating Gap 100 pts

Burundi hold a 100-point rating edge: roughly 14.9% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Goal Patterns 2.6 xG

Combined avg of 2.00 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.6 (Over 2.5 probability: 48%).

Underdog Record 14% W

Chad have won 14% of games entering as underdogs (21W from 145). A strong record against the odds.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

2 meeting(s) · 2026-2026

0
CHA Win
0
Draws
2
BDI Win
0
Goals For
8
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
45
Games Played
88
6.7%
Win %
28.4%
0.64
Goals Per Game
1.22
1.89
Goals Against / Game
1.39
13.3%
Clean Sheet %
19.3%
51.1%
Failed to Score %
44.3%
8.9%
Goalless Draws %
8.0%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,259
Current Rating
1,358
#209
World Ranking
#145
36.4%
Win as Favourite
49.1%
14.5%
Win as Underdog
18.8%
3
Longest Win Streak
6
4
Longest Unbeaten Run
9
1398 (1999)
Peak Rating
1442 (1998)
3W-2L
Penalty Shootouts
2W-6L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

10.4% 19.5% 70.1%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 31 Mar 26 AWAY
4 - 0
Africa Cup of Nations
A 27 Mar 26 NEUTRAL
0 - 4
Africa Cup of Nations

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
0 - 1
14.6%
0 - 2
14.6%
0 - 3
9.8%
1 - 1
9.0%
1 - 2
9.0%
0 - 0
7.3%