Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Cayman Islands
61.2% win probability
Predicted winner
22.2%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.85 - 0.84
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.7
Over 2.5: 51%
Total goals

Cayman Islands

1314#176
CONCACAF
VS

Bahamas

1229#215
CONCACAF
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

61.2% 22.2% 16.6%
CAY
BAH
85
Rating Gap
1.85
Exp. Goals CAY
0.84
Exp. Goals BAH
83.4%
CAY No Defeat
2.7
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

H2H Dominance 4W-1W

Cayman Islands hold the historical edge: 4W-0D-1L across 5 meetings.

Rating Gap 85 pts

Cayman Islands hold a 85-point rating edge: roughly 12.8% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Recent Form 3W/1W

Cayman Islands won 3 of their last 10 games; Bahamas won 1. Current form favours Cayman Islands.

Goal Patterns 2.7 xG

Combined avg of 1.99 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.7 (Over 2.5 probability: 51%).

Underdog Record 8% W

Bahamas have won 8% of games entering as underdogs (4W from 50). A strong record against the odds.

When Favourite 44% W

Cayman Islands win 44% of games when entering as the favoured side (12W from 27). Reliable frontrunners.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

5 meeting(s) · 1999-2026

4
CAY Win
0
Draws
1
BAH Win
11
Goals For
4
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
43
Games Played
54
25.6%
Win %
16.7%
0.79
Goals Per Game
0.93
2.28
Goals Against / Game
2.78
25.6%
Clean Sheet %
13.0%
39.5%
Failed to Score %
50.0%
4.7%
Goalless Draws %
3.7%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,314
Current Rating
1,229
#176
World Ranking
#215
44.4%
Win as Favourite
35.1%
14.9%
Win as Underdog
8.0%
3
Longest Win Streak
3
4
Longest Unbeaten Run
4
1362 (2019)
Peak Rating
1392 (1999)
0W-0L
Penalty Shootouts
0W-0L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

61.2% 22.2% 16.6%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 30 Mar 26 AWAY
1 - 0
CONCACAF Series
H 29 Mar 26 AWAY
1 - 0
CONCACAF Series
H 02 Sep 06 NEUTRAL
3 - 1
CFU Caribbean Cup
H 22 Sep 99 AWAY
4 - 0
Friendly
H 09 May 99 NEUTRAL
4 - 1
CFU Caribbean Cup

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 0
12.5%
2 - 0
11.6%
1 - 1
10.5%
2 - 1
9.8%
3 - 0
7.1%
0 - 0
6.8%