Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Uzbekistan
41.1% win probability
Predicted winner
27.8%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.07 - 1.28
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.4
Over 2.5: 42%
Total goals

Canada

1524#22
CONCACAF
VS

Uzbekistan

1517#27
AFC
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

31.1% 27.8% 41.1%
CAN
UZB
7
Rating Gap
1.07
Exp. Goals CAN
1.28
Exp. Goals UZB
58.9%
CAN No Defeat
2.4
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Limited H2H Data 2 games

Only 2 historical meeting(s). Ratings carry the most weight in this prediction.

Recent Form 3W/5W

Uzbekistan won 5 of their last 10 games; Canada won 3. Current form favours Uzbekistan.

Goal Patterns 2.4 xG

Combined avg of 3.01 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.4 (Over 2.5 probability: 42%).

Tournament Pedigree 2025

Both teams are major tournament winners. Canada's most recent title: 1999. Uzbekistan's most recent title: 2025.

Penalty Shootouts 33% PSO

Shootout record: Canada: 3W-6L; Uzbekistan: 1W-5L. Edge goes to Canada if this match reaches penalties.

Rating Trajectory -5 pts

Canada are gaining momentum recently (-5 pts). Uzbekistan have moved -21 pts in the same window.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

2 meeting(s) · 2016-2026

2
CAN Win
0
Draws
0
UZB Win
4
Goals For
1
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
129
Games Played
132
55.0%
Win %
54.5%
2.05
Goals Per Game
1.53
0.95
Goals Against / Game
0.84
44.2%
Clean Sheet %
49.2%
21.7%
Failed to Score %
28.0%
7.8%
Goalless Draws %
9.8%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,524
Current Rating
1,517
#22
World Ranking
#27
50.0%
Win as Favourite
60.4%
29.1%
Win as Underdog
20.6%
8
Longest Win Streak
8
15
Longest Unbeaten Run
19
1600 (2022)
Peak Rating
1563 (1994)
3W-6L
Penalty Shootouts
1W-5L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

31.1% 27.8% 41.1%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 01 Jun 26 AWAY
2 - 0
Friendly
H 07 Jun 16 NEUTRAL
2 - 1
Friendly

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 1
13.1%
0 - 1
12.2%
1 - 0
10.2%
0 - 0
9.5%
1 - 2
8.4%
0 - 2
7.8%