Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Canada
79.3% win probability
Predicted winner
16.4%
Honours shared
Draw chance
2.05 - 0.30
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.3
Over 2.5: 42%
Total goals

Canada

1519#25
CONCACAF
VS

Qatar

1374#129
AFC
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

79.3% 16.4% 4.4%
CAN
QAT
145
Rating Gap
2.05
Exp. Goals CAN
0.30
Exp. Goals QAT
95.7%
CAN No Defeat
2.3
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Recent Form 4W/1W

Canada won 4 of their last 10 games; Qatar won 1. Current form favours Canada.

Rating Gap 145 pts

Canada hold a 145-point rating edge: roughly 21.8% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Limited H2H Data 2 games

Only 2 historical meeting(s). Ratings carry the most weight in this prediction.

Tournament Pedigree 2019

Both teams are major tournament winners. Canada's most recent title: 1999. Qatar's most recent title: 2019.

Underdog Record 27% W

Qatar have won 27% of games entering as underdogs (84W from 311). A strong record against the odds.

Goal Patterns 2.3 xG

Combined avg of 2.71 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.3 (Over 2.5 probability: 42%).

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

2 meeting(s) · 2022-2026

2
CAN Win
0
Draws
0
QAT Win
8
Goals For
0
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
131
Games Played
178
55.0%
Win %
47.8%
2.07
Goals Per Game
1.58
0.95
Goals Against / Game
1.21
44.3%
Clean Sheet %
35.4%
21.4%
Failed to Score %
23.0%
7.6%
Goalless Draws %
5.6%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,519
Current Rating
1,374
#25
World Ranking
#129
50.0%
Win as Favourite
53.0%
29.1%
Win as Underdog
27.0%
8
Longest Win Streak
7
15
Longest Unbeaten Run
11
1600 (2022)
Peak Rating
1563 (2019)
3W-6L
Penalty Shootouts
4W-5L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

79.3% 16.4% 4.4%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 18 Jun 26 AWAY
6 - 0
FIFA World Cup
A 23 Sep 22 NEUTRAL
0 - 2
Friendly

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
2 - 0
20.1%
1 - 0
19.6%
3 - 0
13.7%
0 - 0
9.6%
4 - 0
7.0%
2 - 1
6.0%