Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Canada
53.1% win probability
Predicted winner
26.7%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.46 - 0.79
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.2
Over 2.5: 39%
Total goals

Canada

1524#22
CONCACAF
VS
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

53.1% 26.7% 20.2%
CAN
IRL
77
Rating Gap
1.46
Exp. Goals CAN
0.79
Exp. Goals IRL
79.8%
CAN No Defeat
2.2
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Limited H2H Data 2 games

Only 2 historical meeting(s). Ratings carry the most weight in this prediction.

Rating Gap 77 pts

Canada hold a 77-point rating edge: roughly 11.5% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Recent Form 3W/5W

Republic of Ireland won 5 of their last 10 games; Canada won 3. Current form favours Republic of Ireland.

Tournament Pedigree 1999

Canada have a major tournament title to their name; Republic of Ireland do not. Proven pedigree at the highest level.

Underdog Record 24% W

Republic of Ireland have won 24% of games entering as underdogs (79W from 331). A strong record against the odds.

Goal Patterns 2.2 xG

Combined avg of 2.61 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.2 (Over 2.5 probability: 39%).

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

2 meeting(s) · 2003-2026

0
CAN Win
1
Draws
1
IRL Win
1
Goals For
4
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
129
Games Played
108
55.0%
Win %
33.3%
2.05
Goals Per Game
1.12
0.95
Goals Against / Game
1.06
44.2%
Clean Sheet %
34.3%
21.7%
Failed to Score %
36.1%
7.8%
Goalless Draws %
13.0%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,524
Current Rating
1,447
#22
World Ranking
#61
50.0%
Win as Favourite
57.7%
29.1%
Win as Underdog
23.9%
8
Longest Win Streak
8
15
Longest Unbeaten Run
17
1600 (2022)
Peak Rating
1543 (2002)
3W-6L
Penalty Shootouts
1W-3L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

53.1% 26.7% 20.2%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

D 05 Jun 26 AWAY
1 - 1
Friendly
H 18 Nov 03 AWAY
3 - 0
Friendly

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 0
15.4%
1 - 1
12.1%
2 - 0
11.3%
0 - 0
10.6%
2 - 1
8.9%
0 - 1
8.3%