Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Saint Vincent & Grenadines
66.5% win probability
Predicted winner
19.5%
Honours shared
Draw chance
0.86 - 2.12
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
3.0
Over 2.5: 57%
Total goals

Barbados

1294#189
CONCACAF
VS
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

14.0% 19.5% 66.5%
BRB
VIN
92
Rating Gap
0.86
Exp. Goals BRB
2.12
Exp. Goals VIN
33.5%
BRB No Defeat
3.0
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Recent Form 1W/6W

Saint Vincent & Grenadines won 6 of their last 10 games; Barbados won 1. Current form favours Saint Vincent & Grenadines.

Balanced Rivalry Tight

The 22-meeting rivalry is exceptionally balanced: 8W for Barbados, 7W for Saint Vincent & Grenadines, 7 draws. Never count either side out.

Rating Gap 92 pts

Saint Vincent & Grenadines hold a 92-point rating edge: roughly 13.8% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Tournament Pedigree 2019

Saint Vincent & Grenadines have a major tournament title to their name; Barbados do not. Proven pedigree at the highest level.

Goal Patterns 3.0 xG

Combined avg of 2.88 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 3.0 (Over 2.5 probability: 57%).

Underdog Record 21% W

Barbados have won 21% of games entering as underdogs (43W from 205). A strong record against the odds.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

22 meeting(s) · 2011-2026

8
BRB Win
7
Draws
7
VIN Win
36
Goals For
31
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
88
Games Played
94
25.0%
Win %
35.1%
1.17
Goals Per Game
1.43
1.88
Goals Against / Game
1.91
25.0%
Clean Sheet %
20.2%
38.6%
Failed to Score %
20.2%
8.0%
Goalless Draws %
0.0%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,294
Current Rating
1,386
#189
World Ranking
#122
46.3%
Win as Favourite
49.3%
21.0%
Win as Underdog
27.0%
4
Longest Win Streak
5
10
Longest Unbeaten Run
8
1461 (2000)
Peak Rating
1476 (1981)
3W-3L
Penalty Shootouts
0W-3L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

14.0% 19.5% 66.5%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

A 29 Mar 26 NEUTRAL
2 - 3
CONCACAF Series
H 28 Feb 19 AWAY
2 - 0
Windward Islands Tournament
D 30 Sep 18 NEUTRAL
1 - 1
Friendly
H 04 Jul 17 NEUTRAL
4 - 2
Windward Islands Tournament
D 28 Aug 15 AWAY
2 - 2
Friendly
D 08 Mar 15 AWAY
2 - 2
Friendly
H 06 Mar 15 AWAY
3 - 1
Friendly
D 02 Sep 12 AWAY
1 - 1
Friendly
H 01 Sep 12 AWAY
2 - 0
Friendly
D 27 May 11 AWAY
0 - 0
Friendly

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
0 - 2
11.5%
0 - 1
10.8%
1 - 2
9.8%
1 - 1
9.2%
0 - 3
8.1%
1 - 3
6.9%