Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Brazil
47.7% win probability
Predicted winner
24.9%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.59 - 1.14
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.7
Over 2.5: 51%
Total goals

Brazil

1587#7
CONMEBOL
VS

Norway

1585#9
UEFA
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

47.7% 24.9% 27.4%
BRA
NOR
3
Rating Gap
1.59
Exp. Goals BRA
1.14
Exp. Goals NOR
72.6%
BRA No Defeat
2.7
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

H2H Dominance 3W-0W

Norway hold the historical edge: 3W-2D-0L across 5 meetings.

Goal Patterns 2.7 xG

Combined avg of 3.71 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.7 (Over 2.5 probability: 51%).

Clean Sheet Rate 18pp

Brazil keep 45.0% clean sheets vs Norway's 27.4%, a 18pp gap that could be decisive in a tight contest.

Tournament Pedigree 2019

Both teams are major tournament winners. Brazil's most recent title: 2019. Norway's most recent title: 1929.

Unbeaten Run 36 games

Brazil's longest unbeaten run is 36 games vs Norway's 17. Brazil have shown greater resilience historically.

Penalty Shootouts 50% PSO

Shootout record: Brazil: 8W-8L; Norway: 0W-0L. Edge goes to Brazil if this match reaches penalties.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

5 meeting(s) · 1988-2026

0
BRA Win
2
Draws
3
NOR Win
6
Goals For
10
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
129
Games Played
106
63.6%
Win %
53.8%
2.04
Goals Per Game
1.98
0.64
Goals Against / Game
1.08
53.5%
Clean Sheet %
36.8%
15.5%
Failed to Score %
17.9%
7.8%
Goalless Draws %
4.7%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,587
Current Rating
1,585
#7
World Ranking
#9
65.4%
Win as Favourite
57.1%
42.3%
Win as Underdog
23.9%
14
Longest Win Streak
9
36
Longest Unbeaten Run
17
1673 (1997)
Peak Rating
1585 (2026)
8W-8L
Penalty Shootouts
0W-0L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

47.7% 24.9% 27.4%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

A 05 Jul 26 NEUTRAL
1 - 2
FIFA World Cup
D 16 Aug 06 AWAY
1 - 1
Friendly
A 23 Jun 98 NEUTRAL
1 - 2
FIFA World Cup
H 30 May 97 AWAY
4 - 2
Friendly
D 28 Jul 88 AWAY
1 - 1
Friendly

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 1
11.8%
1 - 0
10.4%
2 - 1
9.4%
2 - 0
8.2%
0 - 1
7.4%
1 - 2
6.8%