Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Brazil
58.5% win probability
Predicted winner
22.5%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.85 - 0.95
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.8
Over 2.5: 53%
Total goals

Brazil

1590#7
CONMEBOL
VS

Norway

1542#16
UEFA
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

58.5% 22.5% 19.1%
BRA
NOR
48
Rating Gap
1.85
Exp. Goals BRA
0.95
Exp. Goals NOR
81.0%
BRA No Defeat
2.8
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

H2H Dominance 3W-0W

Norway hold the historical edge: 3W-2D-0L across 5 meetings.

Goal Patterns 2.8 xG

Combined avg of 3.72 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.8 (Over 2.5 probability: 53%).

Clean Sheet Rate 17pp

Brazil keep 44.8% clean sheets vs Norway's 27.4%, a 17pp gap that could be decisive in a tight contest.

When Favourite 65% W

Brazil win 65% of games when entering as the favoured side (619W from 948). Reliable frontrunners.

Recent Form 7W/5W

Brazil won 7 of their last 10 games; Norway won 5. Current form favours Brazil.

Tournament Pedigree 2019

Both teams are major tournament winners. Brazil's most recent title: 2019. Norway's most recent title: 1929.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

5 meeting(s) · 1988-2026

0
BRA Win
2
Draws
3
NOR Win
6
Goals For
10
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
132
Games Played
111
63.6%
Win %
52.3%
2.06
Goals Per Game
1.95
0.64
Goals Against / Game
1.12
53.0%
Clean Sheet %
35.1%
15.2%
Failed to Score %
17.1%
7.6%
Goalless Draws %
4.5%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,590
Current Rating
1,542
#7
World Ranking
#16
65.3%
Win as Favourite
57.2%
44.7%
Win as Underdog
23.8%
14
Longest Win Streak
9
41
Longest Unbeaten Run
17
1671 (1997)
Peak Rating
1584 (2026)
9W-7L
Penalty Shootouts
0W-1L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

58.5% 22.5% 19.1%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

A 05 Jul 26NEUTRAL
1 - 2
FIFA World Cup
D 16 Aug 06
1 - 1
Friendly
H 23 Jun 98NEUTRAL
2 - 1
FIFA World Cup
H 30 May 97
4 - 2
Friendly
D 28 Jul 88
1 - 1
Friendly

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 0
11.2%
1 - 1
10.7%
2 - 0
10.4%
2 - 1
9.9%
3 - 0
6.4%
3 - 1
6.1%