Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Brazil
40.0% win probability
Predicted winner
26.7%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.34 - 1.20
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.5
Over 2.5: 47%
Total goals

Brazil

1587#7
CONMEBOL
VS

Japan

1582#11
AFC
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

40.0% 26.7% 33.3%
BRA
JPN
5
Rating Gap
1.34
Exp. Goals BRA
1.20
Exp. Goals JPN
66.7%
BRA No Defeat
2.5
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

H2H Dominance 12W-1W

Brazil hold the historical edge: 12W-2D-1L across 15 meetings.

Goal Patterns 2.5 xG

Combined avg of 3.93 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.5 (Over 2.5 probability: 47%).

Recent Form 6W/7W

Both teams are evenly matched in recent form: Brazil 6/10, Japan 7/10. A closely contested match is expected.

Tournament Pedigree 2024

Both teams are major tournament winners. Brazil's most recent title: 2019. Japan's most recent title: 2024.

Unbeaten Run 36 games

Brazil's longest unbeaten run is 36 games vs Japan's 20. Brazil have shown greater resilience historically.

Rating Trajectory +34 pts

Brazil are gaining momentum recently (+34 pts). Japan have moved -18 pts in the same window.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

15 meeting(s) · 2001-2026

12
BRA Win
2
Draws
1
JPN Win
39
Goals For
9
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
129
Games Played
155
63.6%
Win %
67.1%
2.04
Goals Per Game
2.59
0.64
Goals Against / Game
0.77
53.5%
Clean Sheet %
51.0%
15.5%
Failed to Score %
14.2%
7.8%
Goalless Draws %
3.9%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,587
Current Rating
1,582
#7
World Ranking
#11
65.4%
Win as Favourite
60.1%
42.3%
Win as Underdog
25.7%
14
Longest Win Streak
11
36
Longest Unbeaten Run
20
1673 (1997)
Peak Rating
1617 (2024)
8W-8L
Penalty Shootouts
7W-6L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

40.0% 26.7% 33.3%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 29 Jun 26 NEUTRAL
2 - 1
FIFA World Cup
H 14 Oct 25 AWAY
3 - 2
Friendly Tournament
A 06 Jun 22 AWAY
0 - 1
Friendly Tournament
A 10 Nov 17 NEUTRAL
1 - 3
Friendly
A 14 Oct 14 NEUTRAL
0 - 4
Friendly
H 15 Jun 13 AWAY
3 - 0
FIFA Confederations Cup
A 16 Oct 12 NEUTRAL
0 - 4
Friendly
A 22 Jun 06 NEUTRAL
1 - 4
FIFA World Cup
D 22 Jun 05 NEUTRAL
2 - 2
FIFA Confederations Cup
D 04 Jun 01 AWAY
0 - 0
FIFA Confederations Cup

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 1
12.7%
1 - 0
10.6%
0 - 1
9.4%
2 - 1
8.5%
0 - 0
7.9%
1 - 2
7.6%