Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Brazil
47.6% win probability
Predicted winner
26.0%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.49 - 1.04
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.5
Over 2.5: 46%
Total goals

Brazil

1560#12
CONMEBOL
VS

Croatia

1519#25
UEFA
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

47.6% 26.0% 26.4%
BRA
CRO
40
Rating Gap
1.49
Exp. Goals BRA
1.04
Exp. Goals CRO
73.6%
BRA No Defeat
2.5
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

H2H Dominance 4W-0W

Brazil hold the historical edge: 4W-2D-0L across 6 meetings.

Underdog Record 39% W

Croatia have won 39% of games entering as underdogs (49W from 126). A strong record against the odds.

Goal Patterns 2.5 xG

Combined avg of 3.90 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.5 (Over 2.5 probability: 46%).

When Favourite 65% W

Brazil win 65% of games when entering as the favoured side (623W from 952). Reliable frontrunners.

Recent Form 5W/7W

Croatia won 7 of their last 10 games; Brazil won 5. Current form favours Croatia.

Tournament Pedigree 2024

Both teams are major tournament winners. Brazil's most recent title: 2019. Croatia's most recent title: 2024.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

6 meeting(s) · 2005-2026

4
BRA Win
2
Draws
0
CRO Win
11
Goals For
4
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
125
Games Played
131
63.2%
Win %
51.9%
2.03
Goals Per Game
1.73
0.63
Goals Against / Game
1.06
53.6%
Clean Sheet %
35.1%
16.0%
Failed to Score %
19.8%
8.0%
Goalless Draws %
6.9%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,560
Current Rating
1,519
#12
World Ranking
#25
65.4%
Win as Favourite
58.8%
41.8%
Win as Underdog
38.9%
14
Longest Win Streak
7
36
Longest Unbeaten Run
16
1673 (1997)
Peak Rating
1576 (1998)
8W-8L
Penalty Shootouts
7W-5L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

47.6% 26.0% 26.4%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 31 Mar 26 NEUTRAL
3 - 1
Friendly
D 09 Dec 22 NEUTRAL
1 - 1
FIFA World Cup
A 03 Jun 18 NEUTRAL
0 - 2
Friendly
H 12 Jun 14 AWAY
3 - 1
FIFA World Cup
H 13 Jun 06 NEUTRAL
1 - 0
FIFA World Cup
D 17 Aug 05 AWAY
1 - 1
Friendly

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 1
12.3%
1 - 0
11.8%
2 - 1
9.2%
2 - 0
8.8%
0 - 1
8.3%
0 - 0
7.9%