Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Zimbabwe
46.4% win probability
Predicted winner
28.9%
Honours shared
Draw chance
0.85 - 1.27
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.1
Over 2.5: 36%
Total goals

Botswana

1330#165
CAF
VS

Zimbabwe

1372#134
CAF
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

24.8% 28.9% 46.4%
BOT
ZIM
42
Rating Gap
0.85
Exp. Goals BOT
1.27
Exp. Goals ZIM
53.7%
BOT No Defeat
2.1
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Recent Form 1W/4W

Zimbabwe won 4 of their last 10 games; Botswana won 1. Current form favours Zimbabwe.

H2H Dominance 11W-6W

Zimbabwe hold the historical edge: 11W-5D-6L across 22 meetings.

Tournament Pedigree 2018

Zimbabwe have a major tournament title to their name; Botswana do not. Proven pedigree at the highest level.

Goalless Draw Risk 18% 0-0

18.4% of Botswana's games end goalless, well above the global average, suggesting a low-scoring match.

Goal Patterns 2.1 xG

Combined avg of 2.12 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.1 (Over 2.5 probability: 36%).

Underdog Record 19% W

Botswana have won 19% of games entering as underdogs (49W from 254). A strong record against the odds.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

22 meeting(s) · 2012-2026

6
BOT Win
5
Draws
11
ZIM Win
12
Goals For
26
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
111
Games Played
117
25.2%
Win %
28.2%
0.83
Goals Per Game
1.15
1.18
Goals Against / Game
1.09
32.4%
Clean Sheet %
32.5%
45.0%
Failed to Score %
40.2%
13.5%
Goalless Draws %
15.4%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,330
Current Rating
1,372
#165
World Ranking
#134
41.7%
Win as Favourite
49.8%
19.3%
Win as Underdog
24.4%
4
Longest Win Streak
7
9
Longest Unbeaten Run
14
1439 (2010)
Peak Rating
1508 (2005)
13W-6L
Penalty Shootouts
6W-15L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

24.8% 28.9% 46.4%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

A 28 Mar 26 AWAY
0 - 3
Friendly Tournament
D 30 Sep 23 AWAY
1 - 1
Friendly Tournament
A 25 Mar 21 AWAY
0 - 1
Africa Cup of Nations
D 15 Nov 19 AWAY
0 - 0
Africa Cup of Nations
D 03 Jun 18 NEUTRAL
1 - 1
COSAFA Cup
A 18 Apr 18 AWAY
0 - 1
Friendly
H 30 Sep 14 AWAY
1 - 0
Friendly Tournament
H 06 Feb 13 AWAY
2 - 1
Friendly
H 16 Jul 12 AWAY
1 - 0
Friendly Tournament
D 07 Jan 12 AWAY
0 - 0
Friendly

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
0 - 1
15.3%
1 - 1
12.9%
0 - 0
12.0%
1 - 0
10.2%
0 - 2
9.7%
1 - 2
8.2%