Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Panama
86.6% win probability
Predicted winner
10.9%
Honours shared
Draw chance
0.27 - 2.55
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.8
Over 2.5: 53%
Total goals

Bolivia

1369#138
CONMEBOL
VS

Panama

1517#28
CONCACAF
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

2.5% 10.9% 86.6%
BOL
PAN
148
Rating Gap
0.27
Exp. Goals BOL
2.55
Exp. Goals PAN
13.4%
BOL No Defeat
2.8
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

H2H Dominance 5W-2W

Panama hold the historical edge: 5W-1D-2L across 8 meetings.

Rating Gap 148 pts

Panama hold a 148-point rating edge: roughly 22.2% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Clean Sheet Rate 9pp

Panama keep 28.7% clean sheets vs Bolivia's 20.1%, a 9pp gap that could be decisive in a tight contest.

Recent Form 2W/4W

Panama won 4 of their last 10 games; Bolivia won 2. Current form favours Panama.

Tournament Pedigree 2009

Both teams are major tournament winners. Bolivia's most recent title: 1963. Panama's most recent title: 2009.

Underdog Record 20% W

Bolivia have won 20% of games entering as underdogs (96W from 474). A strong record against the odds.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

8 meeting(s) · 2003-2026

2
BOL Win
1
Draws
5
PAN Win
9
Goals For
13
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
111
Games Played
174
22.5%
Win %
42.0%
0.91
Goals Per Game
1.40
1.95
Goals Against / Game
1.29
23.4%
Clean Sheet %
33.3%
45.0%
Failed to Score %
32.8%
6.3%
Goalless Draws %
8.0%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,369
Current Rating
1,517
#138
World Ranking
#28
39.4%
Win as Favourite
52.6%
20.3%
Win as Underdog
23.2%
5
Longest Win Streak
5
9
Longest Unbeaten Run
13
1476 (1997)
Peak Rating
1536 (2025)
2W-1L
Penalty Shootouts
7W-4L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

2.5% 10.9% 86.6%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

D 18 Jan 26 AWAY
1 - 1
Friendly
A 01 Jul 24 NEUTRAL
1 - 3
Copa América
A 27 Aug 23 AWAY
1 - 2
Friendly
H 06 Jun 16 NEUTRAL
2 - 1
Copa América
A 10 Aug 11 AWAY
1 - 3
Friendly
H 25 Mar 11 AWAY
2 - 0
Friendly
H 20 Aug 08 AWAY
1 - 0
Friendly
H 31 Aug 03 AWAY
3 - 0
Friendly

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
0 - 2
19.4%
0 - 3
16.5%
0 - 1
15.2%
0 - 4
10.5%
0 - 0
6.0%
0 - 5
5.3%