Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Italy
69.6% win probability
Predicted winner
19.5%
Honours shared
Draw chance
0.65 - 2.02
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.7
Over 2.5: 50%
Total goals
VS

Italy

1501#37
UEFA
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

10.9% 19.5% 69.6%
BIH
ITA
94
Rating Gap
0.65
Exp. Goals BIH
2.02
Exp. Goals ITA
30.4%
BIH No Defeat
2.7
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Recent Form 2W/8W

Italy won 8 of their last 10 games; Bosnia and Herzegovina won 2. Current form favours Italy.

H2H Dominance 4W-1W

Italy hold the historical edge: 4W-2D-1L across 7 meetings.

Clean Sheet Rate 10pp

Italy keep 40.4% clean sheets vs Bosnia and Herzegovina's 30.5%, a 10pp gap that could be decisive in a tight contest.

Rating Gap 94 pts

Italy hold a 94-point rating edge: roughly 14.2% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Tournament Pedigree 2019

Italy have a major tournament title to their name; Bosnia and Herzegovina do not. Proven pedigree at the highest level.

Goal Patterns 2.7 xG

Combined avg of 3.11 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.7 (Over 2.5 probability: 50%).

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

7 meeting(s) · 1996-2026

1
BIH Win
2
Draws
4
ITA Win
5
Goals For
11
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
101
Games Played
123
32.7%
Win %
58.5%
1.27
Goals Per Game
1.90
1.35
Goals Against / Game
0.87
31.7%
Clean Sheet %
46.3%
32.7%
Failed to Score %
16.3%
10.9%
Goalless Draws %
7.3%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,407
Current Rating
1,501
#99
World Ranking
#37
58.1%
Win as Favourite
59.7%
20.3%
Win as Underdog
31.7%
5
Longest Win Streak
13
9
Longest Unbeaten Run
37
1511 (2013)
Peak Rating
1631 (2006)
3W-1L
Penalty Shootouts
10W-5L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

10.9% 19.5% 69.6%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

D 31 Mar 26 AWAY
1 - 1
FIFA World Cup
H 09 Jun 24 AWAY
1 - 0
Friendly
A 18 Nov 20 AWAY
0 - 2
UEFA Nations League
D 04 Sep 20 AWAY
1 - 1
UEFA Nations League
A 15 Nov 19 AWAY
0 - 3
UEFA European Championship
H 11 Jun 19 AWAY
2 - 1
UEFA European Championship
H 06 Nov 96 AWAY
2 - 1
Friendly

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
0 - 2
14.1%
0 - 1
14.0%
0 - 3
9.5%
1 - 2
9.2%
1 - 1
9.1%
0 - 0
6.9%