Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Burkina Faso
86.2% win probability
Predicted winner
11.7%
Honours shared
Draw chance
2.37 - 0.20
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.6
Over 2.5: 47%
Total goals

Burkina Faso

1472#48
CAF
VS

Guinea-Bissau

1318#173
CAF
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

86.2% 11.7% 2.1%
BFA
GNB
154
Rating Gap
2.37
Exp. Goals BFA
0.20
Exp. Goals GNB
97.9%
BFA No Defeat
2.6
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Recent Form 7W/1W

Burkina Faso won 7 of their last 10 games; Guinea-Bissau won 1. Current form favours Burkina Faso.

H2H Dominance 4W-0W

Burkina Faso hold the historical edge: 4W-2D-0L across 6 meetings.

Rating Gap 154 pts

Burkina Faso hold a 154-point rating edge: roughly 23.1% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Goal Patterns 2.6 xG

Combined avg of 2.13 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.6 (Over 2.5 probability: 47%).

Underdog Record 18% W

Guinea-Bissau have won 18% of games entering as underdogs (29W from 157). A strong record against the odds.

When Favourite 49% W

Burkina Faso win 49% of games when entering as the favoured side (96W from 197). Reliable frontrunners.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

6 meeting(s) · 2017-2026

4
BFA Win
2
Draws
0
GNB Win
13
Goals For
3
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
133
Games Played
88
42.9%
Win %
25.0%
1.32
Goals Per Game
0.85
0.97
Goals Against / Game
1.48
39.1%
Clean Sheet %
26.1%
29.3%
Failed to Score %
46.6%
12.0%
Goalless Draws %
10.2%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,472
Current Rating
1,318
#48
World Ranking
#173
48.7%
Win as Favourite
47.4%
25.5%
Win as Underdog
18.5%
6
Longest Win Streak
3
12
Longest Unbeaten Run
13
1492 (2024)
Peak Rating
1416 (2021)
10W-5L
Penalty Shootouts
1W-5L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

86.2% 11.7% 2.1%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

D 31 Mar 26 AWAY
1 - 1
Friendly
H 28 Mar 26 AWAY
5 - 0
Friendly
A 24 Mar 25 AWAY
1 - 2
FIFA World Cup
D 17 Nov 23 NEUTRAL
1 - 1
FIFA World Cup
A 22 Mar 18 NEUTRAL
0 - 2
Friendly
A 22 Jan 17 NEUTRAL
0 - 2
Africa Cup of Nations

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
2 - 0
21.5%
1 - 0
18.1%
3 - 0
17.0%
4 - 0
10.1%
0 - 0
7.6%
5 - 0
4.8%