Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Benin
37.8% win probability
Predicted winner
26.9%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.28 - 1.23
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.5
Over 2.5: 46%
Total goals

Benin

1396#108
CAF
VS

Niger

1390#114
CAF
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

37.8% 26.9% 35.3%
BEN
NIG
6
Rating Gap
1.28
Exp. Goals BEN
1.23
Exp. Goals NIG
64.7%
BEN No Defeat
2.5
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Balanced Rivalry Tight

The 14-meeting rivalry is exceptionally balanced: 4W for Benin, 5W for Niger, 5 draws. Never count either side out.

Goal Patterns 2.5 xG

Combined avg of 1.88 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.5 (Over 2.5 probability: 46%).

Penalty Shootouts 67% PSO

Shootout record: Benin: 4W-2L; Niger: 1W-6L. Edge goes to Benin if this match reaches penalties.

Rating Trajectory +25 pts

Niger are gaining momentum recently (+25 pts). Benin have moved -17 pts in the same window.

Rating Gap 6 pts

Benin hold a 6-point rating edge: roughly 0.9% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Recent Form 3W/3W

Both teams are evenly matched in recent form: Benin 3/10, Niger 3/10. A closely contested match is expected.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

14 meeting(s) · 1992-2026

4
BEN Win
5
Draws
5
NIG Win
14
Goals For
19
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
96
Games Played
104
32.3%
Win %
23.1%
1.02
Goals Per Game
0.95
1.17
Goals Against / Game
1.50
29.2%
Clean Sheet %
21.2%
31.2%
Failed to Score %
47.1%
7.3%
Goalless Draws %
9.6%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,396
Current Rating
1,390
#108
World Ranking
#114
43.0%
Win as Favourite
42.6%
16.8%
Win as Underdog
18.3%
3
Longest Win Streak
3
8
Longest Unbeaten Run
5
1442 (2021)
Peak Rating
1412 (2025)
4W-2L
Penalty Shootouts
1W-6L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

37.8% 26.9% 35.3%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

D 05 Jun 26 NEUTRAL
1 - 1
Friendly
D 11 Aug 10 AWAY
0 - 0
Friendly
H 07 Mar 10 AWAY
2 - 0
Friendly
H 22 Jun 08 AWAY
2 - 0
FIFA World Cup
A 14 Jun 08 AWAY
0 - 2
FIFA World Cup
D 07 Mar 03 AWAY
1 - 1
Friendly Tournament
D 09 Aug 98 AWAY
1 - 1
Friendly
H 25 Apr 93 AWAY
4 - 1
Africa Cup of Nations
D 03 Apr 93 AWAY
2 - 2
Friendly
A 16 Aug 92 AWAY
1 - 2
Africa Cup of Nations

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 1
12.8%
1 - 0
10.4%
0 - 1
10.0%
2 - 1
8.2%
0 - 0
8.1%
1 - 2
7.9%