Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Belgium
49.4% win probability
Predicted winner
25.2%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.57 - 1.05
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.6
Over 2.5: 49%
Total goals

Belgium

1534#20
UEFA
VS

Tunisia

1479#41
CAF
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

49.4% 25.2% 25.4%
BEL
TUN
55
Rating Gap
1.57
Exp. Goals BEL
1.05
Exp. Goals TUN
74.6%
BEL No Defeat
2.6
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Recent Form 7W/3W

Belgium won 7 of their last 10 games; Tunisia won 3. Current form favours Belgium.

H2H Dominance 3W-1W

Belgium hold the historical edge: 3W-1D-1L across 5 meetings.

Underdog Record 31% W

Tunisia have won 31% of games entering as underdogs (94W from 301). A strong record against the odds.

Goal Patterns 2.6 xG

Combined avg of 3.24 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.6 (Over 2.5 probability: 49%).

Tournament Pedigree 2010

Tunisia have a major tournament title to their name; Belgium do not. Proven pedigree at the highest level.

Rating Gap 55 pts

Belgium hold a 55-point rating edge: roughly 8.3% extra win probability on ratings alone.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

5 meeting(s) · 1992-2026

3
BEL Win
1
Draws
1
TUN Win
13
Goals For
5
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
127
Games Played
145
64.6%
Win %
51.0%
2.46
Goals Per Game
1.39
0.89
Goals Against / Game
0.81
44.9%
Clean Sheet %
47.6%
11.8%
Failed to Score %
31.0%
3.9%
Goalless Draws %
11.7%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,534
Current Rating
1,479
#20
World Ranking
#41
59.2%
Win as Favourite
50.6%
30.3%
Win as Underdog
31.2%
12
Longest Win Streak
7
24
Longest Unbeaten Run
12
1634 (2021)
Peak Rating
1553 (2022)
2W-0L
Penalty Shootouts
10W-7L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

49.4% 25.2% 25.4%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 06 Jun 26 AWAY
5 - 0
Friendly
H 23 Jun 18 NEUTRAL
5 - 2
FIFA World Cup
H 07 Jun 14 AWAY
1 - 0
Friendly
D 10 Jun 02 NEUTRAL
1 - 1
FIFA World Cup
H 26 Feb 92 AWAY
2 - 1
Friendly

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 1
12.0%
1 - 0
11.5%
2 - 1
9.4%
2 - 0
9.0%
0 - 1
7.6%
0 - 0
7.3%