Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Belgium
43.1% win probability
Predicted winner
26.5%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.40 - 1.13
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.5
Over 2.5: 46%
Total goals

Belgium

1576#12
UEFA
VS

Senegal

1537#19
CAF
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

43.1% 26.5% 30.4%
BEL
SEN
39
Rating Gap
1.40
Exp. Goals BEL
1.13
Exp. Goals SEN
69.6%
BEL No Defeat
2.5
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Limited H2H Data 1 games

Only 1 historical meeting(s). Ratings carry the most weight in this prediction.

Clean Sheet Rate 12pp

Senegal keep 41.8% clean sheets vs Belgium's 30.2%, a 12pp gap that could be decisive in a tight contest.

Goal Patterns 2.5 xG

Combined avg of 3.20 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.5 (Over 2.5 probability: 46%).

Recent Form 6W/5W

Both teams are evenly matched in recent form: Belgium 6/10, Senegal 5/10. A closely contested match is expected.

Tournament Pedigree 2022

Senegal have a major tournament title to their name; Belgium do not. Proven pedigree at the highest level.

Rating Trajectory +58 pts

Belgium are gaining momentum recently (+58 pts). Senegal have moved -49 pts in the same window.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

1 meeting(s) · 2026-2026

1
BEL Win
0
Draws
0
SEN Win
3
Goals For
2
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
133
Games Played
168
63.9%
Win %
59.5%
2.46
Goals Per Game
1.61
0.90
Goals Against / Game
0.67
43.6%
Clean Sheet %
53.6%
12.0%
Failed to Score %
17.9%
4.5%
Goalless Draws %
9.5%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,576
Current Rating
1,537
#12
World Ranking
#19
59.2%
Win as Favourite
55.5%
30.3%
Win as Underdog
27.6%
12
Longest Win Streak
10
24
Longest Unbeaten Run
24
1634 (2021)
Peak Rating
1595 (2026)
2W-0L
Penalty Shootouts
15W-13L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

43.1% 26.5% 30.4%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 01 Jul 26 NEUTRAL
3 - 2
FIFA World Cup

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 1
12.6%
1 - 0
11.2%
0 - 1
9.0%
2 - 1
8.8%
0 - 0
8.0%
2 - 0
7.8%