Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Burundi
70.1% win probability
Predicted winner
19.5%
Honours shared
Draw chance
2.00 - 0.61
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.6
Over 2.5: 48%
Total goals

Burundi

1358#145
CAF
VS

Chad

1259#209
CAF
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

70.1% 19.5% 10.4%
BDI
CHA
100
Rating Gap
2.00
Exp. Goals BDI
0.61
Exp. Goals CHA
89.6%
BDI No Defeat
2.6
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Recent Form 4W/0W

Burundi won 4 of their last 10 games; Chad won 0. Current form favours Burundi.

Limited H2H Data 2 games

Only 2 historical meeting(s). Ratings carry the most weight in this prediction.

Clean Sheet Rate 11pp

Burundi keep 28.7% clean sheets vs Chad's 18.0%, a 11pp gap that could be decisive in a tight contest.

Rating Gap 100 pts

Burundi hold a 100-point rating edge: roughly 14.9% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Goal Patterns 2.6 xG

Combined avg of 2.00 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.6 (Over 2.5 probability: 48%).

Underdog Record 14% W

Chad have won 14% of games entering as underdogs (21W from 145). A strong record against the odds.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

2 meeting(s) · 2026-2026

2
BDI Win
0
Draws
0
CHA Win
8
Goals For
0
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
88
Games Played
45
28.4%
Win %
6.7%
1.22
Goals Per Game
0.64
1.39
Goals Against / Game
1.89
19.3%
Clean Sheet %
13.3%
44.3%
Failed to Score %
51.1%
8.0%
Goalless Draws %
8.9%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,358
Current Rating
1,259
#145
World Ranking
#209
49.1%
Win as Favourite
36.4%
18.8%
Win as Underdog
14.5%
6
Longest Win Streak
3
9
Longest Unbeaten Run
4
1442 (1998)
Peak Rating
1398 (1999)
2W-6L
Penalty Shootouts
3W-2L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

70.1% 19.5% 10.4%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 31 Mar 26 AWAY
4 - 0
Africa Cup of Nations
A 27 Mar 26 NEUTRAL
0 - 4
Africa Cup of Nations

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 0
14.6%
2 - 0
14.6%
3 - 0
9.8%
1 - 1
9.0%
2 - 1
9.0%
0 - 0
7.3%