Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Anguilla
37.6% win probability
Predicted winner
26.1%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.31 - 1.34
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.7
Over 2.5: 50%
Total goals

Bahamas

1229#215
CONCACAF
VS

Anguilla

1253#211
CONCACAF
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

36.4% 26.1% 37.6%
BAH
AIA
24
Rating Gap
1.31
Exp. Goals BAH
1.34
Exp. Goals AIA
62.5%
BAH No Defeat
2.7
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Goal Patterns 2.7 xG

Combined avg of 1.62 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.7 (Over 2.5 probability: 50%).

Recent Form 1W/3W

Anguilla won 3 of their last 10 games; Bahamas won 1. Current form favours Anguilla.

Rating Gap 24 pts

Anguilla hold a 24-point rating edge: roughly 3.6% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Rating Trajectory +1 pts

Anguilla are gaining momentum recently (+1 pts). Bahamas have moved -30 pts in the same window.

Peak Rating 1392

Bahamas peaked at 1392 (in 1999); Anguilla peaked at 1328 (in 2006). Bahamas hold the higher all-time ceiling.

Tournament Pedigree -

Neither team has a recorded major tournament win. Rating and current form are the decisive factors.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

5 meeting(s) · 2000-2026

2
BAH Win
1
Draws
2
AIA Win
8
Goals For
8
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
54
Games Played
59
16.7%
Win %
13.6%
0.93
Goals Per Game
0.56
2.78
Goals Against / Game
3.36
13.0%
Clean Sheet %
8.5%
50.0%
Failed to Score %
62.7%
3.7%
Goalless Draws %
5.1%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,229
Current Rating
1,253
#215
World Ranking
#211
35.1%
Win as Favourite
42.9%
8.0%
Win as Underdog
9.7%
3
Longest Win Streak
2
4
Longest Unbeaten Run
3
1392 (1999)
Peak Rating
1328 (2006)
0W-0L
Penalty Shootouts
1W-0L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

36.4% 26.1% 37.6%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

A 26 Mar 26 NEUTRAL
1 - 3
CONCACAF Series
A 12 Nov 25 NEUTRAL
1 - 2
CONCACAF Series
D 18 Nov 18 AWAY
1 - 1
CONCACAF Gold Cup
H 19 Mar 00 AWAY
2 - 1
FIFA World Cup
A 05 Mar 00 AWAY
1 - 3
FIFA World Cup

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 1
12.4%
0 - 1
9.4%
1 - 0
9.2%
1 - 2
8.3%
2 - 1
8.1%
0 - 0
7.0%