Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Australia
43.7% win probability
Predicted winner
25.6%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.49 - 1.20
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.7
Over 2.5: 50%
Total goals

Australia

1561#11
AFC
VS

Türkiye

1539#17
UEFA
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

43.7% 25.6% 30.7%
AUS
TUR
22
Rating Gap
1.49
Exp. Goals AUS
1.20
Exp. Goals TUR
69.3%
AUS No Defeat
2.7
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

First Meeting 0 games

Australia and Türkiye have never faced each other. The prediction relies entirely on current ratings.

Goal Patterns 2.7 xG

Combined avg of 3.94 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.7 (Over 2.5 probability: 50%).

Tournament Pedigree 2013

Australia have a major tournament title to their name; Türkiye do not. Proven pedigree at the highest level.

Unbeaten Run 20 games

Australia's longest unbeaten run is 20 games vs Türkiye's 6. Australia have shown greater resilience historically.

Penalty Shootouts 62% PSO

Shootout record: Australia: 5W-3L; Türkiye: 0W-0L. Edge goes to Australia if this match reaches penalties.

Rating Gap 22 pts

Australia hold a 22-point rating edge: roughly 3.3% extra win probability on ratings alone.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

No previous meetings between these teams

No previous meetings between these teams

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
119
Games Played
45
61.3%
Win %
60.0%
2.13
Goals Per Game
1.93
0.77
Goals Against / Game
1.29
49.6%
Clean Sheet %
33.3%
16.8%
Failed to Score %
17.8%
5.9%
Goalless Draws %
6.7%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,561
Current Rating
1,539
#11
World Ranking
#17
59.6%
Win as Favourite
75.0%
31.5%
Win as Underdog
35.3%
14
Longest Win Streak
4
20
Longest Unbeaten Run
6
1586 (2001)
Peak Rating
1539 (2026)
5W-3L
Penalty Shootouts
0W-0L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

43.7% 25.6% 30.7%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 1
12.1%
1 - 0
10.1%
2 - 1
9.0%
0 - 1
8.2%
2 - 0
7.5%
1 - 2
7.3%