Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Australia
39.9% win probability
Predicted winner
27.1%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.31 - 1.17
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.5
Over 2.5: 45%
Total goals

Australia

1544#18
AFC
VS

Egypt

1526#22
CAF
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

39.9% 27.1% 33.0%
AUS
EGY
17
Rating Gap
1.31
Exp. Goals AUS
1.17
Exp. Goals EGY
67.0%
AUS No Defeat
2.5
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Limited H2H Data 3 games

Only 3 historical meeting(s). Ratings carry the most weight in this prediction.

Goal Patterns 2.5 xG

Combined avg of 3.67 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.5 (Over 2.5 probability: 45%).

Tournament Pedigree 2013

Both teams are major tournament winners. Australia's most recent title: 2013. Egypt's most recent title: 2008.

Penalty Shootouts 56% PSO

Shootout record: Australia: 5W-4L; Egypt: 14W-11L. Records are closely matched, no clear edge.

Rating Trajectory +14 pts

Egypt are gaining momentum recently (+14 pts). Australia have moved -21 pts in the same window.

Rating Gap 17 pts

Australia hold a 17-point rating edge: roughly 2.6% extra win probability on ratings alone.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

3 meeting(s) · 1987-2026

0
AUS Win
2
Draws
1
EGY Win
1
Goals For
4
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
125
Games Played
140
59.2%
Win %
52.9%
2.06
Goals Per Game
1.43
0.78
Goals Against / Game
0.76
48.8%
Clean Sheet %
48.6%
18.4%
Failed to Score %
19.3%
6.4%
Goalless Draws %
7.9%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,544
Current Rating
1,526
#18
World Ranking
#22
59.2%
Win as Favourite
57.2%
31.3%
Win as Underdog
28.9%
14
Longest Win Streak
9
20
Longest Unbeaten Run
19
1584 (2001)
Peak Rating
1600 (2010)
5W-4L
Penalty Shootouts
14W-11L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

39.9% 27.1% 33.0%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

D 03 Jul 26 NEUTRAL
1 - 1
FIFA World Cup
H 17 Nov 10 AWAY
3 - 0
Friendly
D 19 Jun 87 NEUTRAL
0 - 0
Friendly Tournament

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 1
12.8%
1 - 0
11.0%
0 - 1
9.8%
2 - 1
8.4%
0 - 0
8.4%
1 - 2
7.5%