Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Australia
84.3% win probability
Predicted winner
11.8%
Honours shared
Draw chance
2.57 - 0.39
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
3.0
Over 2.5: 57%
Total goals

Australia

1566#11
AFC
VS

Curaçao

1430#69
CONCACAF
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

84.3% 11.8% 3.9%
AUS
CUW
136
Rating Gap
2.57
Exp. Goals AUS
0.39
Exp. Goals CUW
96.1%
AUS No Defeat
3.0
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Rating Gap 136 pts

Australia hold a 136-point rating edge: roughly 20.4% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Limited H2H Data 1 games

Only 1 historical meeting(s). Ratings carry the most weight in this prediction.

Goal Patterns 3.0 xG

Combined avg of 3.79 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 3.0 (Over 2.5 probability: 57%).

Clean Sheet Rate 11pp

Australia keep 40.3% clean sheets vs Curaçao's 29.4%, a 11pp gap that could be decisive in a tight contest.

Recent Form 5W/4W

Both teams are evenly matched in recent form: Australia 5/10, Curaçao 4/10. A closely contested match is expected.

Tournament Pedigree 2019

Both teams are major tournament winners. Australia's most recent title: 2013. Curaçao's most recent title: 2019.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

1 meeting(s) · 2026-2026

1
AUS Win
0
Draws
0
CUW Win
5
Goals For
1
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
122
Games Played
107
60.7%
Win %
43.9%
2.11
Goals Per Game
2.01
0.77
Goals Against / Game
1.23
49.2%
Clean Sheet %
32.7%
17.2%
Failed to Score %
29.0%
5.7%
Goalless Draws %
9.3%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,566
Current Rating
1,430
#11
World Ranking
#69
59.6%
Win as Favourite
51.0%
31.3%
Win as Underdog
25.4%
14
Longest Win Streak
5
20
Longest Unbeaten Run
7
1586 (2001)
Peak Rating
1480 (2025)
5W-3L
Penalty Shootouts
2W-2L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

84.3% 11.8% 3.9%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 31 Mar 26 AWAY
5 - 1
FIFA Series

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
2 - 0
17.1%
3 - 0
14.6%
1 - 0
13.3%
4 - 0
9.4%
2 - 1
6.7%
3 - 1
5.7%