Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Aruba
61.3% win probability
Predicted winner
21.5%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.94 - 0.92
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.9
Over 2.5: 55%
Total goals

Aruba

1352#148
CONCACAF
VS

Macao

1280#202
AFC
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

61.3% 21.5% 17.2%
ARU
MAC
73
Rating Gap
1.94
Exp. Goals ARU
0.92
Exp. Goals MAC
82.8%
ARU No Defeat
2.9
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Recent Form 4W/0W

Aruba won 4 of their last 10 games; Macao won 0. Current form favours Aruba.

Limited H2H Data 1 games

Only 1 historical meeting(s). Ratings carry the most weight in this prediction.

Rating Gap 73 pts

Aruba hold a 73-point rating edge: roughly 10.9% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Goal Patterns 2.9 xG

Combined avg of 2.06 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.9 (Over 2.5 probability: 55%).

Underdog Record 12% W

Macao have won 12% of games entering as underdogs (13W from 112). A strong record against the odds.

Rating Trajectory +38 pts

Aruba are gaining momentum recently (+38 pts). Macao have moved -56 pts in the same window.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

1 meeting(s) · 2026-2026

1
ARU Win
0
Draws
0
MAC Win
4
Goals For
1
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
57
Games Played
38
22.8%
Win %
18.4%
1.21
Goals Per Game
0.87
2.35
Goals Against / Game
2.03
12.3%
Clean Sheet %
15.8%
45.6%
Failed to Score %
47.4%
7.0%
Goalless Draws %
7.9%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,352
Current Rating
1,280
#148
World Ranking
#202
34.2%
Win as Favourite
30.3%
15.6%
Win as Underdog
11.6%
4
Longest Win Streak
2
5
Longest Unbeaten Run
4
1390 (1989)
Peak Rating
1400 (1975)
2W-2L
Penalty Shootouts
1W-0L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

61.3% 21.5% 17.2%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 26 Mar 26 NEUTRAL
4 - 1
FIFA Series

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 0
11.1%
2 - 0
10.8%
1 - 1
10.2%
2 - 1
9.9%
3 - 0
7.0%
3 - 1
6.4%