Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Belarus
61.3% win probability
Predicted winner
22.4%
Honours shared
Draw chance
0.81 - 1.83
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.6
Over 2.5: 49%
Total goals

Armenia

1297#189
UEFA
VS

Belarus

1377#123
UEFA
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

16.2% 22.4% 61.3%
ARM
BLR
80
Rating Gap
0.81
Exp. Goals ARM
1.83
Exp. Goals BLR
38.6%
ARM No Defeat
2.6
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

H2H Dominance 4W-2W

Belarus hold the historical edge: 4W-2D-2L across 8 meetings.

Rating Gap 80 pts

Belarus hold a 80-point rating edge: roughly 12.0% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Recent Form 1W/3W

Belarus won 3 of their last 10 games; Armenia won 1. Current form favours Belarus.

Goal Patterns 2.6 xG

Combined avg of 2.13 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.6 (Over 2.5 probability: 49%).

Underdog Record 19% W

Armenia have won 19% of games entering as underdogs (41W from 212). A strong record against the odds.

When Favourite 43% W

Belarus win 43% of games when entering as the favoured side (43W from 101). Reliable frontrunners.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

8 meeting(s) · 2000-2026

2
ARM Win
2
Draws
4
BLR Win
10
Goals For
11
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
98
Games Played
106
27.6%
Win %
30.2%
1.27
Goals Per Game
0.96
2.02
Goals Against / Game
1.52
15.3%
Clean Sheet %
34.0%
34.7%
Failed to Score %
42.5%
4.1%
Goalless Draws %
12.3%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,297
Current Rating
1,377
#189
World Ranking
#123
41.7%
Win as Favourite
42.6%
19.3%
Win as Underdog
23.3%
5
Longest Win Streak
3
9
Longest Unbeaten Run
7
1518 (1992)
Peak Rating
1508 (1967)
0W-1L
Penalty Shootouts
1W-2L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

16.2% 22.4% 61.3%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

A 29 Mar 26 AWAY
1 - 2
Friendly
H 09 Nov 17 AWAY
4 - 1
Friendly
D 25 Mar 16 AWAY
0 - 0
Friendly
A 15 Aug 12 AWAY
1 - 2
Friendly
A 03 Mar 10 NEUTRAL
1 - 3
Friendly
H 04 Feb 08 NEUTRAL
2 - 1
Friendly Tournament
D 02 Jun 01 AWAY
0 - 0
FIFA World Cup
H 11 Oct 00 AWAY
2 - 1
FIFA World Cup

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
0 - 1
13.0%
0 - 2
11.9%
1 - 1
10.6%
1 - 2
9.7%
0 - 3
7.2%
0 - 0
7.1%