Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Algeria
53.3% win probability
Predicted winner
25.1%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.59 - 0.91
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.5
Over 2.5: 46%
Total goals

Algeria

1566#12
CAF
VS

Uruguay

1503#33
CONMEBOL
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

53.3% 25.1% 21.5%
ALG
URU
63
Rating Gap
1.59
Exp. Goals ALG
0.91
Exp. Goals URU
78.4%
ALG No Defeat
2.5
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Recent Form 6W/2W

Algeria won 6 of their last 10 games; Uruguay won 2. Current form favours Algeria.

Limited H2H Data 2 games

Only 2 historical meeting(s). Ratings carry the most weight in this prediction.

Goal Patterns 2.5 xG

Combined avg of 3.16 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.5 (Over 2.5 probability: 46%).

Rating Gap 63 pts

Algeria hold a 63-point rating edge: roughly 9.4% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Tournament Pedigree 2021

Both teams are major tournament winners. Algeria's most recent title: 2021. Uruguay's most recent title: 2011.

Underdog Record 29% W

Uruguay have won 29% of games entering as underdogs (132W from 454). A strong record against the odds.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

2 meeting(s) · 2009-2026

1
ALG Win
1
Draws
0
URU Win
1
Goals For
0
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
157
Games Played
120
59.9%
Win %
45.0%
2.03
Goals Per Game
1.44
0.80
Goals Against / Game
0.92
47.8%
Clean Sheet %
46.7%
14.6%
Failed to Score %
30.8%
7.6%
Goalless Draws %
15.8%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,566
Current Rating
1,503
#12
World Ranking
#33
52.9%
Win as Favourite
55.7%
35.2%
Win as Underdog
29.1%
14
Longest Win Streak
7
28
Longest Unbeaten Run
18
1604 (2022)
Peak Rating
1585 (2024)
10W-10L
Penalty Shootouts
10W-9L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

53.3% 25.1% 21.5%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

D 31 Mar 26 NEUTRAL
0 - 0
Friendly
H 12 Aug 09 AWAY
1 - 0
Friendly

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 0
13.0%
1 - 1
11.9%
2 - 0
10.4%
2 - 1
9.4%
0 - 0
8.2%
0 - 1
7.5%