Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Algeria
40.5% win probability
Predicted winner
27.9%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.27 - 1.08
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.4
Over 2.5: 42%
Total goals

Algeria

1578#7
CAF
VS

Nigeria

1552#15
CAF
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

40.5% 27.9% 31.6%
ALG
NGA
26
Rating Gap
1.27
Exp. Goals ALG
1.08
Exp. Goals NGA
68.4%
ALG No Defeat
2.4
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Balanced Rivalry Tight

The 22-meeting rivalry is exceptionally balanced: 9W for Algeria, 8W for Nigeria, 5 draws. Never count either side out.

Recent Form 7W/6W

Both teams are evenly matched in recent form: Algeria 7/10, Nigeria 6/10. A closely contested match is expected.

Goal Patterns 2.4 xG

Combined avg of 3.08 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.4 (Over 2.5 probability: 42%).

Tournament Pedigree 2021

Both teams are major tournament winners. Algeria's most recent title: 2021. Nigeria's most recent title: 2012.

Unbeaten Run 28 games

Algeria's longest unbeaten run is 28 games vs Nigeria's 19. Algeria have shown greater resilience historically.

Rating Gap 26 pts

Algeria hold a 26-point rating edge: roughly 4.0% extra win probability on ratings alone.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

22 meeting(s) · 2002-2026

9
ALG Win
5
Draws
8
NGA Win
27
Goals For
30
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
154
Games Played
142
60.4%
Win %
49.3%
2.04
Goals Per Game
1.49
0.77
Goals Against / Game
0.96
48.7%
Clean Sheet %
36.6%
14.3%
Failed to Score %
23.9%
7.8%
Goalless Draws %
7.0%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,578
Current Rating
1,552
#7
World Ranking
#15
52.8%
Win as Favourite
53.0%
35.5%
Win as Underdog
29.1%
14
Longest Win Streak
6
28
Longest Unbeaten Run
19
1604 (2022)
Peak Rating
1562 (2026)
10W-10L
Penalty Shootouts
10W-9L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

40.5% 27.9% 31.6%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

A 10 Jan 26 NEUTRAL
0 - 2
Africa Cup of Nations
H 27 Sep 22 AWAY
2 - 1
Friendly
A 09 Oct 20 NEUTRAL
0 - 1
Friendly
H 14 Jul 19 NEUTRAL
2 - 1
Africa Cup of Nations
D 10 Nov 17 AWAY
1 - 1
FIFA World Cup
H 12 Nov 16 AWAY
3 - 1
FIFA World Cup
H 30 Jan 10 NEUTRAL
1 - 0
Africa Cup of Nations
A 04 Sep 05 AWAY
2 - 5
FIFA World Cup
H 03 Jul 04 AWAY
1 - 0
FIFA World Cup
A 21 Jan 02 NEUTRAL
0 - 1
Africa Cup of Nations

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 1
13.1%
1 - 0
12.1%
0 - 1
10.3%
0 - 0
9.5%
2 - 1
8.3%
2 - 0
7.6%