Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Algeria
55.3% win probability
Predicted winner
24.9%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.61 - 0.85
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.5
Over 2.5: 45%
Total goals

Algeria

1578#7
CAF
VS
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

55.3% 24.9% 19.8%
ALG
COD
59
Rating Gap
1.61
Exp. Goals ALG
0.85
Exp. Goals COD
80.2%
ALG No Defeat
2.5
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

Recent Form 7W/5W

Algeria won 7 of their last 10 games; Congo Democratic Republic won 5. Current form favours Algeria.

Tournament Pedigree 2021

Both teams are major tournament winners. Algeria's most recent title: 2021. Congo Democratic Republic's most recent title: 2015.

Rating Gap 59 pts

Algeria hold a 59-point rating edge: roughly 8.9% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Goal Patterns 2.5 xG

Combined avg of 2.89 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.5 (Over 2.5 probability: 45%).

Underdog Record 22% W

Congo Democratic Republic have won 22% of games entering as underdogs (30W from 138). A strong record against the odds.

Unbeaten Run 28 games

Algeria's longest unbeaten run is 28 games vs Congo Democratic Republic's 12. Algeria have shown greater resilience historically.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

5 meeting(s) · 2000-2026

1
ALG Win
4
Draws
0
COD Win
4
Goals For
3
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
154
Games Played
137
60.4%
Win %
43.1%
2.04
Goals Per Game
1.33
0.77
Goals Against / Game
0.89
48.7%
Clean Sheet %
38.0%
14.3%
Failed to Score %
25.5%
7.8%
Goalless Draws %
8.8%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,578
Current Rating
1,519
#7
World Ranking
#26
52.8%
Win as Favourite
51.3%
35.5%
Win as Underdog
21.7%
14
Longest Win Streak
5
28
Longest Unbeaten Run
12
1604 (2022)
Peak Rating
1529 (2026)
10W-10L
Penalty Shootouts
5W-5L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

55.3% 24.9% 19.8%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

H 06 Jan 26 NEUTRAL
1 - 0
Africa Cup of Nations
D 10 Oct 19 AWAY
1 - 1
Friendly
D 26 Mar 08 NEUTRAL
1 - 1
Friendly
D 20 Aug 02 AWAY
1 - 1
Friendly
D 24 Jan 00 NEUTRAL
0 - 0
Africa Cup of Nations

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 0
13.8%
1 - 1
11.7%
2 - 0
11.1%
2 - 1
9.4%
0 - 0
8.6%
0 - 1
7.3%